David Sheppard, Gleadell’s managing director, comments on the WHEAT market.

Weather issues around the globe have combined to lift prices consistently over the past week.

In the EU, dry and warm weather in Northern Europe and Scandinavia, plus heavy rainfall in France, is seen as a quality threat. Australia has low soil moisture levels and only limited rainfall is expected. Southern Russia is hot and dry, as are parts of North America.

It does not appear that any of these weather issues are going to be resolved rapidly, therefore the wheat market should stay supported, although volatility can be expected.

In the UK, old crop prices remain firm, and consumers who still have tonnage to buy for July, are certainly not overwhelmed by sellers.

The dynamics of the UK new crop market, given that both bio-ethanol plants are currently expected to be operational, should be similar to this season, with high delivered premiums being evident for the north and the likelihood that the UK will be a net importer for a further year.

Weather markets are difficult to read and can turn around rapidly, so in the current market conditions, hedging some tonnage at the highs of the season should not be ruled out as a sensible marketing policy.

Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading director, comments on the OSR market.

Weather reports in the US are generally positive, although some reports suggest regionalised rain in the coming week.

The primary focus remains on the US China trade deal and the implications of the possible implementation of tariffs.

EU rapeseed has ticked lower on the week, following the move seen on CBOT soybean and Canadian canola.

The UK old-crop market is now all but over, with odd parcels still trading at levels slightly down on the week.

New-crop markets continue to be subject to euro/pound volatility, weather and unresolved global trade questions, with the carry in the market from harvest still favouring those who are able to store until later in the year.

Calum Findlay,comments on the FERTILISER market.

The UK market has quietened this week as it waits to see if CF will announce new-season terms.

In Europe, Yara and Borealis released their new prices on 15 May, at €230/t for bulk 33.5% ammonium nitrate, which reflected an increase on last year and a UK equivalent price of £217/t for 34.5% Nitram.

Markets have been active since with producers facing little difficulty placing business at these levels for June delivery. Even in Germany where, like the UK, spring demand has been slow due to suffering poor weather, both OCI and Yara have now both announced they have sold out of June stocks.

New terms for July and August have been released and yesterday offers increased to €248/t for 33.5% N in bulk. This equates to £232/t delivered for 34.5% in the UK.

Urea markets have again firmed this week, with latest sales confirmed at $250/t FOB Egypt July shipment, which is up $28/t from the lows seen a fortnight ago.

We have seen large amounts of active demand out of Latin America, although here in the UK, offers have dried up as traders evaluate the situation and wait to see if this rally can be sustained.

Forecasts suggest that globally the market still shows signs of being oversupplied at some stage, which may present another buying opportunity later in the year, but the lows seen last year are history.