The Welsh Government has today published the evidence base that underpins the introduction of the Sustainable Farming Scheme, including the Business Case, Integrated Impact Assessment and an updated economic analysis.

These documents consider the potential economic, environmental and social outcomes of the Scheme. Through the work of the Ministerial Roundtable, some of the initial findings helped to inform the final details and indicative payment rates of the Scheme.

Across 15,555 full-time and part-time farms in Wales, the estimated potential economic effects of the Universal Actions report predicts a (worst-case scenario) 5% reduction in Grazing Livestock Units, a reduction in 1,163 Standard Labour Requirements and a reduction in Farm Business Income of £76.3 million - around £4,900 per farm.

Responding to the announcement, FUW President Ian Rickman said: “Due to the nature of the Sustainable Farming Scheme, the documents published today are comprehensive and complex. It will therefore take some time for us to fully understand the extent of these assessments and what this could mean for our members.

“Initially, it seems that the possible impacts on grazing livestock units, standard labour requirements and farm business income have roughly halved compared to previous economic analyses based on earlier versions of the Scheme.

“However, these assessments continue to indicate a concerning negative impact on family farms across Wales. By design, the Sustainable Farming Scheme places greater demands on farming businesses and yet we are still expected to work within the bounds of a twelve-year-old budget settlement that represents a substantial real-terms cut in funding.

“Welsh farmers should not be disadvantaged for transitioning to a new system of support that places greater societal and environmental demands on their businesses. This is why we are calling on the next Welsh Government to increase the base-level funding of £238 million for the Universal Layer of the Sustainable Farming Scheme by an amount that fully mitigates the estimated economic impacts shown by the impact assessments and matches the policy ambitions of the Welsh Government.

“Based on the Welsh Government’s own assessments, this represents an increase of at least £76 million.

“Nevertheless, we welcome the fact that these assessments have been commissioned and published today. These have and will continue to inform the development of the Sustainable Farming Scheme here in Wales, contrary to the scattered and speculative approach taken on the other side of Offa’s Dyke.

“While the revised economic analysis reflects our lobbying efforts to improve the Scheme over recent years, the possible impacts remain concerning, both from an individual farm business and an agricultural supply chain perspective. It is crucial that the critical mass of livestock is maintained and that any further reductions are avoided at all costs.

“We will continue to work with the current and future Welsh Government to further develop the Sustainable Farming Scheme based on the evidence base that’s been published today, and to ensure that the additional actions expected of Welsh farmers are recognised by their true value.”