The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate published by the USDA on 9 October gives a record high for global ending stocks of wheat. The report, on the back of satellite imagery, dispels rumours that the Australian harvest will be hit by droughts. However, earlier reports that El Nino has impacted on Indian rice production is supported and the report puts global ending stocks of rice at the lowest for eight years. 

Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 2.0 million tons, on both increased production and beginning stocks. The biggest production increases are 1.0 million tons each for Australia and Canada, and 1.1 million tons for EU. The Canada and EU increases are based on government reports and harvest progress. Australia had sufficient sub-soil moisture that allowed it to withstand a drier-than-normal September; increased yield potential is supported by satellite imagery. The United States had the largest production decline. The global wheat crop is now projected at 732.8 million tons, the third consecutive record.

World wheat exports for 2015/16 are raised 3.0 million tons with increases for several key U.S. competitors. Ukraine is raised 1.5 million tons on a larger crop. Canada exports are raised 1.0 million tons, and Australia, the EU, Kazakhstan, and Russia are each raised 0.5 million tons. These increases are based on larger supplies and export pace to date. Partly offsetting is a 1.4 million ton reduction for the United States and a 0.5 million ton decline for Argentina. Imports are raised 1.0 million tons in Iran on the elimination of an import duty and 0.5 million tons in Syria because of distribution problems.

Total world usage is up fractionally, and ending stocks are raised 1.9 million tons to a record 228.5 million tons.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 8.3 million tons lower mostly on reduced foreign corn beginning stocks and production. Global corn beginning stocks are lowered 1.2 million tons, reflecting higher 2014/15 EU corn feeding and exports and Ukraine exports. Global corn production for 2015/16 is lowered 5.5 million tons with reductions for Ukraine, Argentina, India, Philippines, and several Sub-Saharan African countries more than offsetting an increase for Brazil. Brazil corn production is also raised for 2014/15. Global 2015/16 production is lowered for rye, millet, sorghum, and barley. Rye production is lowered for EU. Millet and sorghum production are lowered for a number of Sub-Saharan African countries. Barley production is lowered for Russia, but mostly offset by increases for EU, Canada, and Australia. Mixed grain production is also raised for EU, leaving EU coarse grain production higher on the month.

Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is lowered 6.4 million tons with a 4.8-million-ton reduction in corn usage and smaller cuts in rye, millet, and sorghum consumption. Much of the decline in coarse grain consumption is for those Sub-Saharan African counties with lower output this month; however, reductions are also made for corn consumption in Saudi Arabia, EU, Ukraine, and Philippines, and rye consumption in EU. Corn trade for 2015/16 is lowered with a reduction in Saudi Arabia imports. Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine and Argentina but raised for Brazil.

Global 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected 1.9 million tons lower at 187.8 million, 8.2 million lower than in 2014/15.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.0 million tons, up 3.9 million from last month on higher soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, and peanut production. Global soybean production is projected at a record 320.5 million tons, up 0.9 million with higher Brazil production only partly offset by lower projections for the United States, India, and Ukraine. Brazil soybean production is projected at a record 100.0 million tons on higher area. A sharp decline in the value of the Brazilian real recent months is expected to lead to increased area despite lower international soybean prices this year. Soybean crops in Ukraine and India are reduced on lower projected yields. Rapeseed production for Canada is projected at 14.3 million tons, up 1.0 million based on higher yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Global sunflowerseed production is raised on higher estimates for Argentina and Ukraine. Global cottonseed production is projected lower with reductions for China and Pakistan only partly offset an increase for Brazil.

Global oilseed stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 96.3 million tons, up 1.4 million mainly on higher rapeseed stocks in Canada and China, and higher sunflowerseed stocks in Argentina and Ukraine. Global soybean stocks are raised marginally as higher stocks for Brazil are only partly offset by reductions for the United States, Argentina, and India.