By Luiz Garcia & Philip Jones

This report examines the rising phenomenon of “climateflation,” where climate-related shocks around the globe significantly drive up food prices in the UK. The analysis highlights the increasing vulnerability of the UK’s food supply chain and its socioeconomic impacts.

• The UK’s food inflation is closely tied to global supply disruptions, with rising temperatures affecting major food producers in Europe and beyond. By 2050, under high-emission scenarios, food prices could rise by 34% in the UK due to heatwaves and droughts internationally and at home.

• The UK imports nearly 50% of its food, making it highly dependent on international supply chains, particularly from Europe. Climate shocks in key export regions like Spain, France, and Brazil could disrupt imports and further exacerbate inflation.

• Domestic agriculture is similarly at risk, with key crops like wheat, barley, and oilseed rape being affected by extreme weather conditions, including flooding and droughts.

• Lower-income households are disproportionately affected by food inflation, as they spend a larger share of their budget on essential items like bread, rice, and meat. Heatwaves in the UK, as one of the several causes of climateflation, could result in an annual average household loss of £917–£1,247 by 2050, increasing poverty and food insecurity.

• Regions such as the East of England, North West, and South West are projected to face the highest levels of heatwave-induced poverty, with children and working-age adults being the most vulnerable demographic groups.

• Policy recommendations:

• Basic essentials: The government should provide a ‘basket’ of basic essentials to every household in the UK free of charge. This would include food items that meet a significant percentage of the calorific and nutritional needs of every child and adult in the country.

• Introduction of buffer stocks: The UK must develop a buffer stock system to stabilise food prices and ensure availability during supply chain disruptions.

• Public diners: A publicly-funded service providing essential food items to all households as a ‘diner’ interface (and crucially not a foodbank) should be considered to mitigate the impact of food price volatility on vulnerable groups.

• Price controls: Temporary price caps on essential food goods during inflationary periods can help reduce the burden on consumers and prevent “greedflation” in the private sector.

• Support for sustainable agriculture: Long-term investments in regenerative and agroecological farming practices are crucial to build resilience in the domestic food system and reduce reliance on imports.