This publication contains provisional estimates (based on industry reports) of the 2012 Scottish cereal and oilseed rape harvest along with commentary and graphics on longer term trends. 

Final estimates of the 2012 cereal harvest are due to be published in December 2012.

These provisional estimates indicate that, compared with the 2011 harvest:

• Overall, cereal production is expected to decrease between 2011 and 2012 by 354,000 tonnes or 12 percent to 2.5 million tonnes.  This would give the lowest level of production since 1994. Average cereal yields are expected to decrease by 14 per cent to 5.5 tonnes per hectare – the lowest since 1998
• Cereal areas (as reported in the June census 2012) increased by 11,000 hectares or 2 per cent
• Total barley production is expected to decrease by 112,000 tonnes or 6 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes
• Despite a 10 per cent increase in the area of Spring barley   (as reported in the June census 2012), the expected 13 per cent reduction in Spring barley yield (to 4.9 tonnes per hectare) would result in a decrease in production of 5 per cent (to 1.408 million tonnes)
• Winter barley yield is expected to decrease by 8 per cent resulting in an expected 14 percent reduction in production, to  279,000 tonnes
• Wheat production is expected to decrease by 250,000 tonnes or 27 per cent to 683,000 tonnes.  Areas (as reported in the June census 2012) decreased by 15,000 hectares or 13 per cent and average yields are expected to decrease by 16 per cent to 6.8 tonnes per hectare
• The production of oats is expected to increase by 9,000 tonnes or 8 per cent to 131,000 tonnes.  This increase was due to a 9 per cent increase in area, despite an expected 1 per cent decreas in yield
• Oilseed rape production is expected to decrease by 40,000 tonnes or 26 per cent to 110,000 tonnes.  This decrease was caused by a decrease in area of 2,000 hectares, and an expected decrease in yield of 23 per cent

As well as providing government and stakeholders with early estimates of the size of the harvest, these results also meet a reporting requirement of statistical regulations from the European Commission.

The first estimates provide a useful early indication of final cereal production volumes. The estimates are derived through the annual Crop Report Meeting (CRM) which is a consultation with an expert panel of industry bodies and SG representatives. This annual consultation produces expected yields and expected production volumes, based on known production of around a quarter of all Scottish cereals. Although the estimates from the expert panel are fairly reliable, they tend to overestimate production in the region of 2 to 5 per cent.