British pig industry organisation BPEX has said rocketing feed costs and the affects of forthcoming animal welfare legislation in Europe could impact on meat production.

The lobby group has already warned that meat prices could rocket on declining availability from next year, and urged buyers to back British producers. However, the Washington DC-based Worldwatch institute has revealed that meat production and consumption is slowing down in the West, and Europe is thought to be leading the trend.

From January 2013, the EU will introduce a partial ban on gestation crates, as part of a raft of new animal welfare measures introduced over the next few years, the first of which being the poorly implemented battery cage ban, which was brought in in January this year to limited compliance.

According to the latest available data, 18 EU states will be ready for the new legislation when it comes into effect in January. This compares favourably with the 2012 Laying Hens Directive, which saw over half of the EU’s 27 member states entering 2012 in a state of non-compliance. However, BPEX said some member states “still have a long way to go” to meet the January deadline for new pig welfare legislation.

The sow stalls which will be subject to a ban have been outlawed in Britain and Sweden for a number of years.  

BPEX analysts have suggested that, at the current rate of compliance, the new legislation and challenging market conditions could lead to a dramatic fall in production, leading to rising prices, or possibly a realignment of production so that breeding is concentrated in North West Europe and finishing in Eastern and Southern Europe, reducing overall production costs.

However, Stephen Howarth, who authored a report on the future of the European pig industry said, "It is difficult to say which scenario is most likely, because of the impact of huge feed price rises.” He said that it is most likely that prices will keep up with rising food costs, meaning impacts on production remain limited.

BPEX Chairman Stewart Houston said, "The sow stall ban cannot be taken in isolation. It is happening at a time when pig producers are under considerable financial pressure due to high feed costs. Most producers have been left in a loss-making position. The situation is not likely to improve markedly in the immediate future, unless recent pig price rises are sustained, since feed prices are expected to remain high.”

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