Willie Wright, Oilseed Trader at Gleadell Grain Merchants, provides analysis on the week’s movements in the global oilseed markets.

Soybeans have bounced 40 cents from their post-USDA low, which would indicate the market is not yet convinced that the rain in South America, or more importantly Argentina, is sufficient for corn and soybeans at this time. 

Rapeseed has slipped over the last week as a result of profit taking after a €40 run up in old crop or €30 in new crop. Recent farmer sales have taken care of domestic market demand, pushing first hand buyers out of the market for the time being. The export market remains strong with varying opinions on exported tonnages so far, although some traders are forecasting the UK exportable surplus being shipped by February. 

The Matif futures rapeseed market remains largely inverted and we now see this pattern appearing in the new crop market place. Crush margins for rapeseed remain very poor in the near term. 

Towards the end of last week we saw Standards & Poor’s downgrade seven Eurozone countries, negotiations in Greece faltering and the IMF looking to bolster their funds by $500 billion which should have spooked the markets. Remarkably it didn’t, and crude oil, equities and the wider macro-economic market place are trading with a surprising amount of optimism. We can only assume that the ratings agency’s opinions of the markets are less important compared to the success or failure of weekly bond/bund auctions.