Global meat production rose to 297 million tons in 2011, an increase of 0.8 percent over 2010 levels, and is projected to reach 302 million tons by the end of 2012, according to new research conducted by the Worldwatch Institute.

The Washington DC-based sustainable development institute monitors trends in the world's production and consumption through its Vital Signs Online research service. Worldwatch said the latest figures reveal that rises in meat production and consumption have slowed considerably, although overall levels of production have risen 20 percent since 2001.

Compared to last year’s 0.8 percent increase, meat production rose 2.6 percent between 2009 and 2010. It is also thought that this year’s record drought in the U.S. Midwest, animal disease outbreaks in a number of global regions, and rising prices of livestock feed will result in further contractions and price rises for many animal products next year. Rising input costs contributed to 2011’s deceleration and the institute forecast production and consumption to slow once more in 2012.

Danielle Nierenberg and Laura Reynolds, authors of Vital Signs Online said consumption is also bucking a decades-long trend, having decreased slightly worldwide in 2011. Consumption of meat in developing countries is accounting for most of the increases worldwide. Consumption increased 25 percent in developing countries in 2011, whereas in industrialised countries it increased just 2 percent.

Although the disparity between meat consumption in developing and industrialised countries is seen to be shrinking, it remains high. Pork and poultry are the most popularly consumed forms of meat worldwide, though overall pork production was shown to have fallen by 0.8 percent between 2010 and 2011. European producers have expressed fears that pig farmers could go out of business as a result of slightly reduced demand and increased feed prices. Europe is leading the trend for reduced meat consumption, with all areas affected except poultry.

Shift in production

A breakdown of meat production by geographic region also reveals a dramatic shift in centres of production from industrialised to developing countries over the last decade. In 2000, for example, North America led the world in beef production, at 13 million tons, while South America produced 12 million tons and Asia, 10 million tons. By 2011, North America had lowered its beef output by 200,000 tons and was overtaken by both South America and Asia, which produced 15 million and 17 million tons, respectively.

Widespread and intense drought in China, Russia, the United States, and the Horn of Africa contributed to lower meat production - and higher prices - in 2010 and 2011. The combination of high prices for meat products and outbreaks of new and recurring zoonotic diseases in 2011 also curtailed global meat consumption.

Sustainable development organisations have warned that a trend for diets heavily reliant on meat and dairy products for protein may put untenable strain on the Earth’s resources, given the pressure human population increases will cause. They have said disease could also be a serious risk if livestock production increases rapidly in developing regions, usually resulting in more intensive livestock farming in areas where biosecurity measures and environmental protection legislation are difficult to enforce.

Many zoonotic diseases, thought to have been exacerbated by intensive production methods, have affected humans in the past few years. The International Livestock Research Institute has suggested zoonoses (zoonotic diseases) cause around 2.7 million human deaths each year, and approximately 75 percent of all emerging infectious diseases now originate in animals or animal products. Food security experts have called for an increasing emphasis to be placed on growing healthy local protein crops and a variety of leafy vegetables around the world, suggesting increased support for horticulture will be necessary to adequately feed a growing population.

The Worldwatch authors said earlier this week, "Many zoonotic disease outbreaks can be traced to concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). These systems now account for 72 percent of poultry production, 43 percent of egg production, and 55 percent of pork production worldwide."

Author Nierenberg said these intensive systems "contribute to disease outbreaks in several ways; they keep animals in cramped and often unsanitary quarters, providing a breeding ground for diseases; they feed animals grain-heavy diets that lack the nutrients needed to fight off disease and illness; and many CAFOs feed animals antibiotics as a preventative rather than a therapeutic measure, causing the animals -and the humans who consume them - to develop resistance to antibiotics."

The researchers suggested that livestock farming could be conducted sustainably, but changes to global production and consumption patterns are necessary. They wrote "Nearly 1 billion people living on less than $2 a day depend to some extent on livestock, and many of these people are raising animals in the same ways that their ancestors did" and suggested "Reconnecting meat production to the land and its natural carrying capacity, as well as reducing meat consumption, can greatly improve both public and environmental health."

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