In the US, a record yield of corn is being predicted by advisory service Pro Farmer despite immaturity and lower yield indications. It’s the same in Russia too, with wheat harvest reported at 38.6mln t as of Aug 26, compared with 31.3mlnt for the same time last year. This levels out at an average of 2.88 t/ha compared to last years 2.01 t/ha. It’s the same story in Germany with the German Farmers’ Association DVB reckoning the 2013 wheat crop stands at 23.9 mln t, a rise from 22.38 mln t last year. In France, harvest is complete despite worries over quality although good proteins in the north have held it up. Crop estimates are between 36.5 – 38.5 mln t.

But while harvest is underway, trading does not cease with some movement in the markets. In the Ukraine, July 1 – Aug 27 grain exports are reported at 3.23 mln t, a rise of 16% on the year.  Egypt has purchases of Russian/Ukrainian and Romanian origin for 295,000t for October shipment. Prices are well below US/French levels although US corn, soybean markets have rose on the back of dry weather with concerns that yield will deteriorate.

China has bought 55,000t Australian wheat for December shipment – total purchases now reported at 3.7mln t (US), 2.2mln t (Australian).

Things aren’t so rosy in Argentina though with their Ag Ministry trimming the 2013 wheat area estimate to 3.9mln hectares – wheat ‘safe for now’ from late winter frosts.

According to Gleadell, markets continue to be driven by US corn and soybean volatility with weather forecasts, fund buying and bouts of profit-taking combining to produce a rollercoaster ride for prices over the week.

US December corn is $1/t lower, having traded in a $15 range due to concerns over the extended dry weather threatening yield potential. While this may be the case for soybeans, corn is much further along the maturity process and this should limit further major downgrades on yields, currently projected around the 154bu/acre mark.

EU markets have moved higher, with MATIF up €3/t reflecting the rise in the Chicago market. Harvest is almost complete in northern Germany, with yields bigger than expected and better quality too, despite the hard winter and spring weather conditions.

In the UK, according to the latest data from Farming Online, winter wheat is averaging 8.82 t/ha with an average moisture of 14.9% as of 30 August, across the 4500 ha of wheat submitted so far.