The second provisional results of AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds’ Cereal Quality Survey show that the average Hagberg Falling Number for GB wheat is still above the benchmark 250s level, although slightly lower than the initial provisional results.

Above average rainfall from mid-August had led to concerns that the Hagberg may fall considerably. However, the latest results have shown that the decline in the average Hagberg Falling Number, from 312s in September to 293s, has been no greater than usual. Nevertheless, the average Hagberg is now below the previous three-year average (excluding 2012 as the adverse weather conditions that year skew the average).

The second provisional results are based on 50,896 wheat samples analysed up to 30 September.

The average GB specific weight and protein content have also declined compared with the first provisional results published in September but remain above 2014’s final results and the previous three year average (excluding 2012).

Anna Lockwood, AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds Analyst, said:  “Generally, GB wheat quality has improved compared with last year, despite fears that weather conditions during the second part of harvest could have reduced quality. We have seen a fall in Hagbergs compared with initial results in September, but this is no greater than declines seen in previous years as a higher number of Group 3 and 4 samples are now included. Overall, the proportion of samples meeting high quality milling wheat specification is more than two and a half times greater compared with last year. However, there is still potential for things to change as more samples are analysed.”

For barley, the latest data based on 28,338 samples shows that although the average specific weight, at 66.5kg/hl, is lower than first set of 2015 results released in September, it is still higher than last year’s final result. Screening results have improved compared with the results published in September, with the proportion of grain retained by a 2.5mm sieve now matching the previous three year average (excluding 2012) of 95.4%. The average nitrogen content for GB barley, at 1.53%, now matches the final average for 2014, although there are regional differences.

Miss Lockwood added: “There’s a better representation of Scottish barley results, with 33% of the sample originating from Scotland. In terms of the average nitrogen content for spring barley, there is a regional contrast: the average Scottish spring barley nitrogen content is lower compared with last year, whereas the English spring barley average is higher. This will be due to the dry weather in Southern England earlier in the summer. Although these results provide a better picture of Scottish barley quality they do not reflect the issue there has been with skinning of barley grain which will be challenging for maltsters and distillers.”

The final results of the Cereal Quality Survey will be published in early November.

Wheat

Wheat results are based on 50,896 samples (up from 22,004 in September) and provide a better all-round representation of GB regions and nabim groups. Eastern and South-Eastern England still account for a majority of samples (48% and 21% of the samples, respectively), but the number of samples from other regions has increased.

With more Group 3 and 4 samples analysed in comparison to the first provisional results, the bias towards milling wheat is less. However, it is important to note that Group 1 varieties still make up a majority of the samples (41%), and the final results could change further. The average Group 1 Hagberg Falling Number is 314s, down from 327s recorded in the first provisional results. As with the first provisional results, 2012 is not included in the three-year GB average as adverse harvest conditions during that year led to particularly poor results, which skew the average.

• At 78.8 kg/hl, the average specific weight is lower than the 79.8 kg/hl obtained for the results released in September, but is still the highest result seen since 1990. The range for 2015 is 73.1‒84.1 kg/hl.
• The average Hagberg Falling Number is now 293s (compared with 312s in September) and is slightly below the previous three year average. The range for 2015 is 144‒423s.
• At 11.9%, the average protein content is lower than the 12.1% measured in September but is above the three-year average. The range for 2015 is 9.5‒14.3%.

The Venn diagrams below show that the proportion of Group 1 samples meeting high quality milling wheat specifications are almost three times higher compared with 2014 final results. Furthermore, the proportion of Group 1 and 2 samples meeting requirements for medium quality bread wheat are also up year on year.

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Barley


The updated results are based on 28,338 barley samples, almost twice as many samples than in September. The majority of the samples originate from Scotland (33%) and Eastern England (31%), with spring barley currently comprising 65% of the total sample size. While there is a better geographical representation of these barley results compared with the first provisional results, please note that the final results may still vary.

• At 66.5 kg/hl, the average specific weight is lower than that recorded in September (67.2 kg/hl) but just above 2014’s final figure. The range for 2015 is 61.1‒71.5 kg/hl.
• For total barley samples, the average nitrogen content is now 1.53%, matching 2014’s final result of the lowest on record. The range for 2015 is 1.17‒1.92%.
• The average nitrogen content for winter barley is 1.55% (1.55% September), while for spring barley, it is 1.52% (1.61% in September).

Screening results have improved slightly compared with the results published in September as 95.4% of grain was retained by a 2.5 mm sieve (93.8% in September) and 1.5% of grain passed through a 2.25 mm sieve (1.7% in September).
For grain passing through a 2.25 mm sieve, the range for 2015 was 0‒5%, whilst the range for grain retained by a 2.5 mm sieve was 86.5‒100%.

Further details about the AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds’ Cereal Quality Survey can be found at cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets