Drought conditions in main growing areas alongside increased consumption see projected global stocks of course grains drop by 82 million tonnes.

Global 2018/19 wheat supplies are decreased 9.3 million tons primarily on lower production, which is the smallest in three years. The production declines are led by a 4.4-million-ton reduction for the EU reflecting continued dryness especially in the north. Australia, Russia, and Ukraine are lowered 2.0 million, 1.5 million, and 1.0 million tons, respectively, and also reflect continued dryness. China production is reduced 1.0 million tonnes on lower harvested area as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture. 

Global 2018/19 exports are lowered 1.9 million tons on decreased supplies. EU exports are reduced 1.5 million tons and Australia and Russia are both lowered 1.0 million tons. These export reductions are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Canada and a 0.7 million tonnes increase for the United States. 

Total Global consumption for 2018/19 is lowered 2.3 million tons on both lower food and feed and residual use. With global supplies declining more than projected use, world ending stocks are reduced 5.3 million tonnes to 260.9 million.  However, that is still some  3 million tons higher than the ending stocks of 2016/17.

The 2018/19 global soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher production and lower trade and crush compared to last month. The tariff that China recently imposed on U.S. soybeans is expected to cause higher prices for soybeans in China and slower protein meal consumption growth. 

Lower demand and a year-over-year drawdown in stocks for China are forecast to result in reduced crush and an 8-million-ton decline for imports to 95 million. Parallel to this change is a 6.8-million-ton decline for U.S. exports that is partly offset by a 2.1-million-ton increase for Brazil. Planted area for Brazil for 2018/19 is expected to expand with higher prices resulting from increased trade with China, leading to a 2.5 million tonnes increase in production to 120.5 million. 

With lower soybean crush and reduced soybean oil production, China is expected to increase imports of other vegetable oils, including soybean, palm, and rapeseed. 

Total global 2018/19 oilseed production is down 1.4 million tons to 592.6 million with a 4.3-million-ton increase for soybean production offset by lower rapeseed and sunflower. Rapeseed production is reduced 2.6 million tonnes with lower production for the EU, Australia, Ukraine, and Russia. 

In the EU, rapeseed production is lowered for Germany and the UK on persistent dryness while production is lowered for France on pest pressure. Sunflowerseed production is down 2.9 million tonnes mainly for Russia and Ukraine on lower yields from dry conditions. 

Projected (2018/19) global ending stocks for oilseeds are raised by 11 million tonnes, but are still slightly less than the estimated ending stocks for 2017/18.