China’s soybean imports have grown steadily for the last couple of decades driven by growing population, urbanization, and rising incomes. Improved living standards have spurred China’s meat consumption, creating strong demand for high-protein feeds and edible oils. However, due to China’s decision to include soybeans on the list of key U.S. commodities that are subject to retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent, China’s expected demand for imported soybeans is forecast to decline. Accordingly, China’s 2018/19 soybean import forecast is cut 8.0 million tons to 95.0 million this month, 2.0 million tons below the 2017/18 estimate.

Lower 2018/19 soybean imports will be partially offset by a larger carryin from 2017/18. The current trade tension between China and the United States has rattled oilseeds markets as importers and processors attempt to secure supplies for the next marketing year. With the 2017/18 soybean import forecast unchanged, lower crush results in ending stocks being revised nearly 3.0 million tons higher to 23.4 million. Crush will continue growing, though at a slower pace than initially forecast. This will result in a reduction in China’s total oilseed meal consumption in 2018/19.

With global rapeseed and sunflowerseed production forecasts down in 2018/19, China will not be able to fully offset soybean meal with other oilseed meals. It is likely that feed rations will be altered, reducing protein meals in favor of additional coarse grains, silage, and corn byproducts. USDA forecasts China to consume over 93.0 million tons of oilseed meals (soybean meal equivalent basis), which represents a slowing in annual consumption growth from 6.1 percent to 3.8 percent.

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