Farming News - France and Germany lower yield estimates amid climatic concerns

France and Germany lower yield estimates amid climatic concerns

19 May 11

A sense of nervousness has gripped the European grain market due to persistent weather worries and a succession of ever-lowering harvest forecasts.

Yesterday, Agritel published its latest estimate for the 2011 French soft wheat harvest. The predicted harvest of 31.65 million tonnes represents a decrease of 4 million tonnes (11.5%) on last year’s harvest. The average yield is estimated to be 63.1 quintals (6.3 tonnes) per hectare against 72.5 q/ha (7.25t/ha) last year. Agritel figures show that yields are down all over the country.


The drop in yield has resulted from a lack of rain over the past three months; affected areas have only seen between 30 and 80% of their average seasonal rainfall. The devastating effects of the drought have been exacerbated by above average temperatures.


Germany lowers its predicted yield

Just as France has lowered its projected yield for this year, so too has Germany, whose crop has also been affected by the unseasonably hot, dry weather. The Association of German Cooperatives has estimated that the 2011 German wheat yield will be down by 7.2% to 22.3 million tonnes, compared to 24 million last year. Up until last month, the German yield was expected to reach 25.5 million tonnes.

These revised estimates, combined with bad weather dogging the US crop and USDA’s faltering estimates, which Rabobank analysts have cautioned may be almost 12m less than the USDA's world harvest forecast, have caused wheat prices to rise to their highest levels in three months.