Data commissioned by the NFU has shown Labour is not trusted by its 2024 voters on issues surrounding the impact of the Budget on farmers.

The polling, carried out by Portland this week, shows that changes to inheritance taxation on family farms are unpopular, and that perceptions that Labour does not value rural voters as highly as urban ones are building.

The data shows that two thirds (65%) of the public do not think that the Government has fully considered the impact of its planned changes on family farms.

In the days since the Budget, the NFU has repeatedly said to Treasury and government that its figures justifying the Family Farm Tax are wrong and will devastate family farms, putting many out of business.

Government suggests 27% of farms will be affected by changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT), namely Agriculture Property Relief (APR). In sharp contrast, the NFU has demonstrated more farms will be impacted and has released data showing 75% of farms stand to be above the £1m Family Farm Tax threshold.

New polling, released today, shows the British public agree with the NFU, with only 27% supporting the Family Farm Tax.

Other results show:

• IHT on farms is the joint most unpopular measure in the Budget, tied with changes to pensions
• Two thirds (65%) of the public do not think that the Government has fully considered the impact of its planned changes on family farms
• IHT on farms is ranked the second least popular budget measure among 2024 Labour voters, with (21%) picking it, fractionally less unpopular than IHT on pension pots (22%),
• 49% of 2024 Labour voters think that either IHT on farms and businesses is unfair. Only 11% felt IHT on farms was among their most favoured budget measures.
• Only 17% of voters trust the Chancellor most to tell them about the impact of this policy on farms, with 52% trusting ordinary farmers to tell them the truth.
• 49% of voters think the government is biased against the countryside, with only 26% disagreeing
• IHT on farms is also at the bottom of things which are popular with the public – just 8% agree with it.

NFU President Tom Bradshaw said: “I am not surprised by this data. It shows the level of support for British farmers from people across the country. This is echoed with the 255,000 people that have so far signed our petition to Stop the Family Farm tax. Unfortunately for this new government, it also shows that, on the issue of changes to Inheritance Tax to working family farms, the majority of people are with us and believe this an unfair move.

“From the work we have done with financial experts formerly of the Treasury and Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), we know 75% of farms could be impacted by changes to APR and Business Property Relief (BPR). While the two go hand in hand, for many working farms, the Treasury has chosen not to count this as part of its planned Inheritance Tax changes, therefore skewing the impact the changes will have, resulting in the confusion and uncertainty which has played out in the media in recent days.

“But I am certain, as are the 1,800 NFU members that joined me on Tuesday for our mass lobby, with more than 10,000 farmers on the streets of Westminster, calling on their MPs to back our demands to halt the current budget madness, to carry out an urgent and full review of the correct data and draw better conclusions.

“Without this change, farmers will be forced to sell off parts or all their farm businesses to pay huge tax bills, with added cost for pensions. All this puts additional costs to food producing businesses which are already operating on paper thin margins. Together with changes to the National Live Wage and National Insurance, I can’t see a scenario where food prices don’t rise, at a time when the public have already been hammered by a cost-of-living crisis.

“My message to government is clear; look at the evidence, stop this family farm tax and show your electorate you’re on their side.”

Please see the attached summary of polling data for more information.

1. The polling by Portland (full details on the email attachment) was conducted via an online panel. 1,074 participants from a nationally representative sample of the UK public were surveyed between 21 - 22nd November 2024.
2. NFU full economic impact analysis into the APR reforms on commercial family farms can be found here.