The National Pig Association, the producer interest group for the UK’s pig farmers, has warned that a world shortage of pork and bacon is now unavoidable in 2013. NPA claims that artificially low prices are behind the predicted deficit.

European Union statistics suggest consumption and production of all meats is set to contract in Europe over the coming years, with the exception of poultry, which has maintained a ‘healthy image’. Nevertheless, NPA announced on Thursday (20th September) that British supermarkets can still “protect consumers from shortages and steep price rises if they pay Britain’s loss-making pig farmers a fair price, to help them remain in production.”

New data shows the European Union pig herd is declining at a significant rate, and this is a trend that is being mirrored around the world. Pig farmers have been plunged into loss by high pig-feed costs, caused by the global failure of maize and soya harvests. According to German pig industry organization ISN, this situation is maintaining a balance in markets, which, for the time being at least, are steady throughout most of mainland Europe, with small price rises being seen in major exporting countries.

Although markets may be balanced, NPA said all major pig-producing countries in Europe have reported shrinking sow herds. Falling numbers in the 12 months to June 2012 have been reported this week by Denmark (-2.3), Germany (-1.3), Ireland (-6.6), Spain (-2.8), France (-3.2), Italy (-13), Hungary (-5), the Netherlands (-3.6), Austria (-2.8), Poland (-9.6) and Sweden (-7.2).

Commenting on the declines, NPA chair Richard Longthorp said, “Supermarkets know they have to raise the price they pay Britain’s pig farmers or risk empty spaces on their shelves next year. But competition is so fierce in the high street at present, each is waiting for the other to move first.”

The producers’ association has launched a campaign to secure higher prices for pig farmers. British Pig Executive Mick Sloyan warned on Wednesday (19th September) that a fall of only 2 percent in slaughterings next year will cause prices to rise by 10 percent. NPA predictions are for a 10 per cent drop in slaughterings by the second half of next year.

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