In its latest crop report, the EU Commission's Mars agricultural unit said the EU as a whole remains on track to reap near record harvests, though forecasters acknowledged that "An over-wet and cold May has constrained crop development in large parts of central Europe." Britain remains one of the major problem areas, where the after-effects of adverse weather earlier in the year are still being felt.

In Spain in particular, brighter conditions have boosted the prospects for field crops. The country is expected to have an excellent season, especially for barley. In the south, a cooler and wetter start to the spring has preserved soil moisture, which has favoured the ripening of winter crops. For many southern regions, spring

temperatures were 4^oC below seasonal averages.

However, analysts revealed that, though conditions have improved, "Crop development delays were not recovered in northern France and the United Kingdom."

Mars forecasters said that the high rainfall seen over May, which caused "vast flooding" on the Rivers Danube and Elbe in mid-June, has damaged crops in a number of countries and could increase the risk of pests and disease due to soil moisture rising to "critical levels."

Overall, the EU all-wheat forecast rose slightly; soft wheat is expected to stay close to the five year average, though durum wheat is expected to fare much better this year. The Mars wheat estimate (5.32 tonnes per hectare for the EU 27) ties in with US Department of Agriculture predictions published in last week's WASDE report.

Yields are expected to increase in Spain and, though they have been affected by flooding, Romania and Hungary, too. Forecasts were revised downwards for Germany, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, which were also hit, though Mars said the projected increases elsewhere would offset losses caused by the past weeks' floods.

Weather: cool spring to give way to heat-wave in the East

In line with the UK experience, temperatures across much of Europe were several degrees cooler than average over the spring, particularly in Central Europe. Wintry conditions, which lasted into March delayed plantings and development across much of the continent's Central and Northern states.

However, Mars analysts suggested the warmer weather, which eventually arrived in late April and May, stimulated crop growth. Agronomists last week suggested that crops in the UK have begun to respond to belated improvements in the weather.    

In France, persistent cold temperatures and rainfall, combined with the late spring, mean crops are delayed by 10 to 15 days.

Mars said a long period of warmer weather is predicted in the Southern and Eastern Europe, following on from the rainy period observed in late spring. For Britain and Scandinavia, however, more rainfall is forecast.

Although barley yields for the EU 27 were raised, as a result of good performance in Spain, the bloc's largest producer, oilseed rape forecast were reduced slightly. Increases in projections for the maize and barley yields are slightly higher than those made by USDA in its WASDE report.

UK outlook

In the UK, Mars said "A period of favourable weather conditions has sustained steady crop growth. However, both winter and spring crops still show a strong developmental delay," due to below average temperatures, which have lasted throughout the spring.

Crops are delayed by between one and three weeks, with variations depending on region and crop type.

Mars experts said that, although crops are responding positively to more favourable weather conditions, winter crops now face two main risks. They said that, either accelerated development caused by a continuation of warmer conditions could reduce the grain-filling period and thus the yield potential of crops, or, alternatively, milder temperatures – and a normal grain-filling period – could lead to high yield potentials but delay the harvest, which would then be more susceptible to bad weather.