6 June 2011

The second driest spring in 100 years, and the warmest since 1659, when records began, has left much of South East England on the brink of drought. Many rivers have shrunk to their lowest levels in 50 years and rumours abound of entire crops being lost or destroyed and replanted after having withered at critical times in their growth. Although the estimated effects on yields varies greatly from one source to another, several newspapers have reported that farmers in the South East stand to lose and estimated £400 million worth of produce as a result of the dryness.image expired

Despite yesterday’s rain, an official state of drought is likely to be declared in East Anglia, where only a fifth of the average rain has fallen this season; some areas have seen less than 5mm of rain since February. There are fears that the Environment Agency may introduce water restrictions this summer.

Stephen Rash, a Suffolk farmer and delegate for the NFU expressed his consternation over the effects such a declaration may have on farmers in affected regions. He said, “It’s not unexpected but restrictions will obviously make life extremely difficult to maintain quality of production - especially for those with vegetables and potatoes who need irrigation. People need food but people also need water to drink, it’s about getting that balance.”

Rothamsted Research Institute’s head of crop productivity group, Dr Eric Ober, has conducted modelling to predict the expected yields of cereal crops following the dry weather. According to his estimates, wheat yields ought to fall by around a quarter as a result of the climatic stressors. Dr Ober said, "East Anglia has had very little rain since the beginning of February, so the crop has been surviving on the moisture in the soil. A lot of the yield is formed in the plant during the early stages of growth which was when there was very little rainfall. The development of the plant has been affected at a critical stage.”

Environment Agency assesses drought damage

Environment Agency scientists are currently assessing the damage the dry weather is causing in East Anglia based on rainfall, river depth, ground water and forecasts; they are expected to announce that the region has suffered "prolonged and damaging dryness".

Trevor Bishop, head of water resources at the Environment Agency, told The Guardian that ecological damage had already occurred in Southern England. Bishop said, "We are seeing a significant impact on rivers like the Tone in Somerset and Frome in Dorset which are at their lowest levels in 50 years. We are having to rescue fish and have started pumping [ground] water into rivers to increase the flows."

An Environment Agency spokesperson confirmed that the intense dry spell had caused river levels to drop and demand for water for irrigation had risen. She explained, “We have recently written to farmers in specific river catchments across Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk to give them an early warning that if the situation does not improve we may have to impose formal restrictions on abstraction for spray irrigation at the end of June.”

Government calls crisis talks

Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman has convened crisis talks for later this week to devise a strategy for tackling the dry spell before it has disastrous consequences for UK agriculture.

This Friday, the Defra chief will meet farmers, supermarkets and utility companies to discuss a course of action. The farmers will warn ministers that crop yields could fall by as much as 50 per cent if regions affected by the arid spring weather do not see prolonged rain. Two weeks ago Spelman asked the Environment Agency to report on the potential effects of a drought on agricultural production, food prices, water and power supplies.

Meanwhile, the atmosphere in mainland Europe is also tense. French Agriculture Minister Bruno LeMaire revealed yesterday that the cost to the country of compensation and drought measures would probably be in excess of €100m.

LeMaire’s promise of loans for French farmers means European wheat stocks are expected to hit a 30-year high; prices rose 36% over the last two months. Three consecutive years of low wheat yields have resulted in a price spike, which has given rise to fears that Europe may lift import restrictions on GM foods.

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