There are fears that the effects of a drought covering much of England could impact on food prices this spring and summer. As the prospect of a drought in Southern, Central and Eastern English counties looks ever more likely, there have been fears over its potential to affect horticulture and cereal production.

On Monday, the Environment Agency released a report which warned drought is almost certain to affect food producers in England over the coming months. In its report, the agency revealed that reservoir stocks are below average in parts of the South West, East Anglia and, most notably the South East and soils were the driest on record for the late winter in some central and eastern areas.

Most ominously, the EA warned, “This is a continuing problem for the farming community, but after two successive dry winters the drought is also impacting severely on the environment and water resources.”

Some farmers in Southern and Eastern areas in particular have said they are either already feeling the effects of drought, or that they have drastically altered their plans in order to cope with expected water shortages. Nevertheless, there are fears that some crops already in the ground will suffer reduced yields.

Vegetable crops including carrots, onions, broccoli and salad crops, which should be planted this month to come into season later in the spring, may be severely affected. Potatoes, which are a thirsty crop, are expected to fare worst.

Parts of Central England last year saw an incredibly long irrigation season due to extremely low rainfall; one farmer in Shropshire said he was forced to irrigate from April right into October. If the potato crops are subject to scab or darker colouration as a result of the dry weather, this could lead to rejections from supermarkets and processors, rendering the potatoes suitable only for feed.

It has also been suggested that dry weather could result in lower barley quality, making high quality supplies needed by maltsters and brewers scarcer and sending up the price, resulting in further rises elsewhere, including bread and beer prices.

Hopes northern growers will be able to make up for deficit

There are hopes that Northern England, Wales and Scotland, which remain largely unaffected, can help mitigate the ill effects of drought and avoid shortages of certain fruits and vegetables if producers further south see reduced yields or opt for less thirsty crops.

The EA report said that the UK needs sustained, above average monthly rainfall from now until the end of April, when any benefits from rainfall will be lost rather than going to recharge water resources. However, the outlook is not promising. Commenting on the weather prospect, Terry Marsh of the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, said, “Rainfall in early March was very welcome but in the absence of truly exceptional rainfall, in excess of 150 per cent of average, over the next 6-8 weeks (by which time evaporation demands will be rising rapidly) no early termination to the drought can be expected.”

In its report, the Environment Agency said that ground water levels and soil moisture deficits are worse in some regions than during the last severe drought year of 1976. Farmers have expressed concern that they may have to switch to highly efficient, though much more expensive, ‘trickle’ irrigation systems if dry springs and summers become the norm, as policy makers have warned.

Natural England, which is responsible for protecting the country's wildlife, said it is ensuring that the appropriate Environmental Stewardship (ES) derogations are made available as quickly as possible to farmers signed up to agri-environment schemes. The body provides funding to farmers and land managers involved in agri-environment schemes to the tune of £400 million per year for managing their land in a wildlife friendly manner, however, it said some requirements under its agri-environment schemes may be lifted in exceptional circumstances, including drought.

Tweet