Like a scene from Steinbeck's novel the Grapes of Wrath the consequences of the ongoing Californian drought are staggering. "Dried-up fields blow dust into the sky. River beds and canals, once full of water, are now full of dead weeds and rattlesnakes. Fruit orchards along Interstate 5 look like burned piles of firewood. Workers who used to make a living picking fruit and working machinery now stand in government supported food lines to feed their families. No water means no jobs". This, a description of an area near Fresno in the Central Valley of California.

Food price increase

Californian farmers produce nearly half of US-grown fruits, nuts and vegetables and most of its high-value crops such as broccoli, tomatoes and artichokes. Almost 70% of the nation’s lettuce is grown in California. Most of this is produced in the Central Valley. The rising cost of water has forced farmers to fallow about 500,000 acres of land and produce less, making certain foods more expensive. These commodities represent over 60 percent of total U.S. fruit and tree nut farm value and 51 percent of vegetable farm value. The USDA warned last Wednesday that prices for fruit and vegetables are likely to increase by 6% across the whole of the US as a result of this drought.

Heading for a Megadrought?

It’s a big drought, the driest period in the state's recorded rainfall history and some are predicting it could turn into a Megadrought typical of California's earlier history.  One hundred percent of California is in a severe drought. The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor shows 33 percent of the state in the most critical drought category, exceptional drought. This area grew about eight percent from just a week ago.  77 percent is in an extreme drought according to a report released last week by the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Neb.

State officials estimate water tables in some parts of the Central Valley have dropped 100 feet below historical lows. Groundwater pumping, there has been a surge in new well drillings, could also put more stress on the San Andreas Fault, which has moving plates that can cause earthquakes.

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And those aren't the only consequences.

"We're on a one-way trajectory towards depletion, towards running out of groundwater," says Jay Famiglietti, a University of California hydrologist and a leading expert on groundwater. He points out California's the only Western state that doesn't really monitor or regulate how much groundwater is pumped.

Hope of El Nino fades.

California and the Great Basin will most likely have to wait until the 2014-15 Water Year for drought relief. In northern and central California, Exceptional Drought (D4) reflected abysmal 2013-14 Water Year precipitation totals; from northern portions of the Coastal Range to Mt. Shasta, precipitation since October 1 totaled 30 to 50 percent of normal (deficits of 16 to 32 inches). The corresponding Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI), which helps quantify precipitation in terms of drought and historical probability, are well into the Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) categories. Similar precipitation rankings (D3 or D4 equivalent) are prominent for the past Water Year from San Francisco south to Santa Barbara and east to the Sierra Nevada, including most of the San Joaquin Valley.

Predictions for a wet El Niño season coming in this winter that would bring badly needed rain and relief to a parched state have receded. National climatologists have backed away from predicting a strong El Niño like the one that doubled the area’s average rainfall in 1997-98. “It is different than what folks were thinking a few months ago. At this point we are only favoring a moderate type of event,” said Michael Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s climate center, in an interview Wednesday.

Global implications.

Will the US now turn to other outlets for its fruit and vegetables and will this in turn lead to a global increase in food prices?