Farming News - ADM Agriculture Wheat and Oilseed Rape Market Report
ADM Agriculture Wheat and Oilseed Rape Market Report
Jonathan Lane, ADM Agriculture’s head of grain trading, comments on the wheat market
Hemswell, Lincolnshire, 29 November 2019
The EU’s crop monitoring unit (MARS) report a fall in France’s soft wheat area compared with last year due to heavy autumn rain. A quarter of the crop was left to plant as of 18 November, by which time the campaign is usually ending. However, as in the UK, winter wheat sowing is expected to continue, where possible, for some time yet.
AHDB’s ‘early bird survey’ showed as of mid-November that farmers across the UK intended to plant nearly 10% less wheat for harvest 2020 than in 2018. If the current weather pattern continues through December and into January, the reality of what does get planted could be vastly different to currently intentions. Most traders expect a larger fall in the wheat area and a large increase in the spring barley area.
EU wheat seems well supported by the export trade, which, along with firmer global markets and a stronger US dollar, saw Matif futures rise €2/t on the week. With the UK about to enter its festive season logistical market, there is little reason why markets should fall dramatically as growers’ selling activity slows and uncertainty reigns with regard to the UK’s 2020 wheat crop size.
The firming global market is reflected by a rise in US wheat prices of $4.75/t on the week due to talk of lower Southern Hemisphere production. Increased Chinese purchases of US wheat are keeping the market underpinned amidst continued buying interest.
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported the US winter wheat crop as 52% good/excellent, unchanged on the week, but below the 55% reported a year earlier. Official national rating will now cease until early April as the crop enters dormancy.
Russian grain exports are expected to fall to 3mln t in November, down from 4.1mln t in October. The year-to-date figure (21 November) is down 16% 19.4mln t (17mln t of wheat).