Calum Findlay comments on the markets

Granular urea pricing is beginning to rebound in the UK following some seasonal weakness due to changes in currency and expectations of higher nitrate prices.

Granular urea currently carries around a £200/t upside risk when based against current ammonium nitrate prices on a £/kg N basis.

Price jumps in TFF Dutch Hub gas futures and UK natural gas indicate higher nitrate prices or production curtailment in the region, which could see urea prices rise significantly.

The potential for similar trends to the July-Sept period of 2021 are emerging amongst a very uncertain backdrop.

Currently, ammonium nitrate manufacturers are forecasting forward demand and balancing supply, which is keeping product availability tight and creating a firm floor in nitrogen pricing in the region.

Urea ammonium nitrate is likely to rise on the back of any price increases in calcium ammonium nitrate and ammonium nitrate in the region.

Phosphates and potash remain flat at all-time highs as we approach UK peak demand for the straight nutrients. Direction beyond the autumn is unclear as demand destruction is evident.