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Global Wheat Supplies.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 6.2 million tons lower mostly reflecting lower production for Australia, Russia, and EU-27.  

Production for Australia is lowered 3.0 million tons as a continuation of dryness through September during critical flowering and grain fill stages has reduced yield potential for this year’s crop.

Production for Russia is lowered 1.0 million tons reflecting the latest harvest reports that indicate lower yields and harvested area for spring wheat.  

Production is lowered 0.8 million tons for EU-27 mostly reflecting a reduction for the United Kingdom where excessive harvest-time rainfall has reduced production.  Other EU-27 country changes were smaller and mostly offsetting.  

Production is also reduced for Uruguay, Canada, Algeria, and Kyrgyzstan, each down 0.3 million tons based on the latest indications from government sources.  Also reducing 2012/13 supplies this month is a 0.5-million-ton reduction in global beginning stocks mostly on higher 2011/12 exports for Australia.  Upward revisions for 2010/11 and 2011/12 Argentina production partly offset the Australia reduction.

Global Wheat Consumption

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 2.4 million tons as higher feed and residual use in the United States, Canada, and EU-27 is offset by lower wheat feeding for Russia, lower food use for India, and the reduction in Thailand and Vietnam consumption driven by reduced Australia production and exports.  

Australia exports are lowered 3.0 million tons for the 2012/13 local October-September marketing year and raised 1.0 million tons for the 2011/12 local year.  Most of the reduction for 2012/13 is expected after June 2013 maintaining substantial competition for U.S. exports during the remainder of the 2012/13 June-May U.S. marketing year.  

Argentina 2011/12 exports are also raised 0.6 million tons for the local December-November marketing year further adding to pressure on U.S. exports during 2012/13.

Global Wheat Exports

Global wheat exports for 2012/13 are lowered 4.0 million tons with the Australia and U.S. reductions, and reductions of 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, for EU-27 and Canada.  Increases of 1.0 million tons each for India and Russia are partly offsetting.  Smaller export changes include a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Uruguay and a 0.2-million-ton increase for Mexico.  World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 3.7 million tons lower mostly reflecting reductions for Australia, the United States, and Russia.

Global Oilseed Production

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 457.7 million tons, up 4.6 million from last month as higher soybean and cottonseed production more than offset reduced rapeseed production.  

Global soybean production is projected at 264.3 million tons, up 6.2 million mostly due to an increase for the United States.  A small increase for India soybean production is offset by a small reduction for Canada based on the latest survey information from Statistics Canada.  

Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada based on lower yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada.  Early excess moisture resulted in delayed planting which was followed by dry conditions and heat during flowering, leading to the lowest yields since 2007.  Rapeseed production is also reduced for Australia.  Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China, India, and Pakistan.

Revisions to the world 2012/13 oilseeds estimates include reduced soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina, increased soybean imports for China and Mexico, and increased soybean crush for Argentina, China, and Mexico.  Lower rapeseed exports for Canada and Australia are partly offset by reduced imports for several countries including China, EU-27, Japan, and Mexico.  Global oilseed stocks for 2012/13 are increased 3.6 million tons to 64 million.  Soybeans account for most of the change, with higher stocks in Argentina, Brazil, China, and the United States.

The full report can be accessed here.

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