The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates published by the USDA today project increases in world wheat and oilseed stocks for 2013/14

Global Wheat Position

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are lowered 0.8 million tons as a decline in global output more than offsets higher beginning stocks, mostly in the European Union. European Union production for 2012/13 is revised higher and domestic consumption is estimated lower boosting 2013/14 beginning stocks. European Union production for 2013/14 is raised 0.4 million tons with small increases to reported crops in a number of member countries. Canada production is raised 1.7 million tons in line with official estimates.

Global production, however, declines 2.6 million tons with production lowered 2.5 million tons for Russia, 1.5 million tons for Kazakhstan, and 1.0 million tons for Argentina. Reductions for Russia and Kazakhstan reflect late-season harvest reports for spring wheat. The reduction for Argentina is based on lower expected harvested area as dryness and late-season freeze events reduce prospects for a crop which will be harvested over the coming weeks.  

Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is lowered 3.0 million tons with reductions in foreign feed and food use projected this month. Feed use is lowered for China, Russia, and the European Union, more than offsetting a small increase for South Korea. Food use is lowered for India, Russia, and the European Union.

Global wheat trade, in the aggregate, is mostly unchanged this month with imports raised for several African countries and Mexico, but lowered for China, the European Union, and the Philippines.

World exports decline slightly as reductions for Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Russia more than offset increases for Canada, the European Union, and India.

World wheat stocks are projected 2.2 million tons higher with the biggest increases for the European Union, Canada, and Argentina.

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised 26 million bushels with higher estimated production and an increase in expected imports. Production was raised 14 million bushels in the September 30 Small Grains report. Production is further raised 2 million bushels for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and slightly for Durum. Imports are projected 10 million bushels higher with larger supplies in Canada and stronger food use expected for HRS wheat. Food use for all wheat, however, is lowered 8 million  bushels reflecting the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers’ Association  with Hard Red Winter wheat food use reduced. Feed and residual use is projected 30 million bushels higher based on indicated June-August disappearance from the September 1 stocks. Projected ending stocks are raised 4 million bushels.   

Global Oilseed Position

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 499.4 million tons, up 4.3 million from September. Higher soybean, sunflower seed, and rapeseed forecasts account for most of the change.

Global soybean production is projected at 283.5 million tons, up 1.9 million as the increase for the United States more than offsets reductions for India, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. The India soybean crop is reduced 0.5 million tons to 11.8 million as excessive rainfall during much of the growing season reduced yield potential.

Global sunflower seed production is increased 1 million tons to a record 42.8 million on gains for Russia, European Union, and Moldova which are only partly offset by a reduction for Argentina. The increase for Russia reflects sharply higher yields reported in weekly harvest progress reports.

Global rapeseed production is raised to a record 67.9 million tons reflecting gains for Canada, Ukraine, and the European Union. The increase for Canada is based on higher yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Almost ideal weather conditions throughout the growing season resulted in a projected record large crop despite the first decline in harvested area since 2006.

Revisions to the world 2013/14 oilseed supply and demand estimates include reduced soybean exports and increased crush for Argentina and increased soybean exports for Brazil. Soybean crush is reduced for India and Russia on smaller supplies. Rapeseed exports are increased for Canada and Ukraine, while imports are raised for China.

Global oilseed stocks for 2013/14 are reduced 0.5 million tons to 80.7 million. Soybeans account for most of the change, with reduced stocks in Brazil more than offsetting gains in Argentina and the United States.

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