The latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate for wheat and oilseeds from the USDA.

Wheat

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 1.8 million tons with higher production. India production is increased 1.0 million tons based on t he latest revisions by the government of India for the crop harvested nearly a year ago.  EU-27 production is raised 0.5 million tons based on the latest production estimate released by the government of Lithuania.  Production is estimated 0.3 million tons higher for Nepal in line with historical revisions to the country's production series this month.  Global wheat trade is projected higher for 2012/13. Imports are raised 1.0 million tons for Iran, 0.5 million tons for South Korea, 0.3 million tons for Algeria, and 0.2 million tons each for China and Japan. Partly offsetting are reductions of 1.0 million tons for Egypt and 0.2 million tons for Kenya. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for EU-27, 0.5 million tons for Brazil, and 0.3 million tons for Ukraine, more than offsetting this month’s reduction for the United States.

World wheat feed use is increased 1.3 million tons with 0.5-million-ton  increases for Australia, Canada, and South Korea, and a 0.1-million-ton increase for Japan  outweighing a 0.3-million-ton decrease for Egypt.  Lower expected food use in India, Egypt, and Kenya limit the increase in global wheat consumption. World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 1.5 million tons higher with the largest increases for India, Iran, and the United States. The biggest reductions in ending stocks are for Australia, Egypt, EU-27, Brazil, Canada, and Ukraine.  

Oilseeds

U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012/13 are unchanged this month, leaving ending stocks at 125 million bushels. Although soybean export commitments through February exceeded last year’s pace, U.S. exports are expected to decline in the months ahead as increased competition from a record South American soybean crop limits additional U.S. sales during the second half of the marketing year.  Soybean crush is also ahead of last year’s pace, but is projected to slow in the second half of the marketing year on declining soybean meal exports as competition from South America, especially Argentina, increases with the new-crop harvest.  The projected season-average price range for soybeans is narrowed 25 cents on both ends of the range to $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 48.5 to 51.5 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $425 to $445 per short ton, down 10 dollars at the midpoint.  

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 466.8 million tons, down slightly from  last month as reduced soybean and sunflower seed production is mostly offset by  increased rapeseed and cottonseed production.  Foreign production, projected at 374.1 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Argentina soybean production is projected at 51.5 million tons, down 1.5 million. Despite widespread rains in recent weeks, the extended dry period during planting and early crop development limited plantings and reduced yield prospects. China rapeseed production is projected at 13.5 million tons, up 0.9 million based on increased area and yield indicated in recently released official government statistics. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Australia and India, reduced sunflower seed production for Argentina, and increased palm oil production for Malaysia. Cottonseed production is increased for China and reduced for Pakistan and Brazil.