WHEAT:

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 0.4 million tons higher this month with a small increase in seed use more than offset by lower expected feed and residual disappearance. Seed use for 2012/13 is raised slightly based on producer planting intentions for 2013/14.  

Global wheat supplies up

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 2.9 million tons on higher world beginning stocks with the biggest increases for EU-27, Morocco, and Mexico. The increased stocks primarily reflect balance sheet revisions that lower 2011/12 domestic wheat use for several countries this month. Global 2012/13 production is nearly unchanged, but notable changes are made for some countries.

Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Morocco with an upward yield revision. EU-27 production is decreased 0.2 million tons with lower reported output for the United Kingdom. Saudi Arabia production is lowered 0.2 million tons with lower area. Smaller reductions are made for Chile and Tunisia.  

Global wheat trade is projected higher for 2012/13 with exports raised 2.6 million tons. Exports are increased 1.0 million tons each for Australia and EU-27. Exports are also raised for the FSU-12 with Ukraine up 0.5 million tons and Russia up 0.2 million tons. Import changes are made for a number of countries. The biggest increases are for Iran, Algeria, Ethiopia, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates. The biggest declines are for Morocco, Russia, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam.

Wheat use down

World wheat feed and residual use is lowered 5.2 million tons with much of the decline resulting from a 3.0 million ton reduction for China. Wheat feed use is also lowered 1.0 million tons for EU-27 with smaller reductions made for Russia, Vietnam, and Ukraine.

World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 4.0 million tons higher with China stocks raised 3.0 million. Increases for North Africa, EU-27, Iran, and the United States more than offset a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia and smaller reductions for FSU-12   and Saudi Arabia.   

OILSEEDS:

The U.S. soybean crush for 2012/13 is increased 20 million bushels this month to   1.635 billion. The increase reflects strong soy bean meal exports through the first half of the marketing year. Increased U.S. soybean meal exports partly offset reduced meal exports for Brazil and Argentina as crush in those countries declines more quickly than expected on reduced supplies resulting from last year’s drought. Soybean exports are projected at 1.35 billion bushels, up 5 million on stronger-than-expected shipments in recent weeks.

Oilseed production up

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 468.8 million tons, up 2 million from last month. South American soybean production accounts for most of the change. Paraguay soybean production is forecast at 8.35 million tons, up 0.6 million as higher yields more than offset reduced harvested area. Projected yields resulting from favorable rainfall and relatively mild temperatures are the highest for Paraguay in the past 10 years. Uruguay soybean production is also raised this month on higher area and yield. Uruguay benefitted from the same favorable weather pattern seen in Paraguay and southern Brazil.

Other changes this month include higher rapeseed production for EU 27, higher sunflower seed production for China, and reduced cottonseed production for Brazil.  Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 114.4 million tons, down 1.4 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade.

Lower soybean exports projected for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay are only partly offset by increases for Uruguay and the United States. Lower exports in Paraguay reflect higher crush as new capacity becomes operational. Soybean imports are reduced 2 million tons to 61 million for China reflecting lower-than-expected imports for the first half of the marketing year. Higher soybean imports are projected for several countries including Egypt, EU-27, Mexico, and Vietnam. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 62.6 million tons, up 2.4 million as gains in Brazil and Argentina more than offset lower stocks in China.

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