A poll of NFU members has revealed that this year's wheat harvest looks set to fulfil gloomy predictions and come in lower than last year's. Linked to the prospect of a smaller harvest, short-term confidence amongst arable farmers was shown to be at low ebb.  

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The poll, conducted in May, reveals the overall harvested area on the farms is on course to be almost 30 per cent lower than in 2012, following on from HGCA figures showing the winter wheat planting area was 25 per cent down. The lower plantings have combined with miserable winter weather and one of the wettest, dullest springs on record to spell trouble for farmers.

Release of the NFU data was timed to coincide with the Cereals event being held in Lincolnshire this week. If the picture painted by the 'snapshot' plays out across the country, UK wheat production will fall below the long-term average for the second consecutive year.

NFU said the findings are the result of "a year of unprecedented extreme weather which has battered crops." The union called on the government to ensure Common Agriculture Policy reforms favour UK farmers in light of the hardships identified in the study.

In a separate survey, also conducted by the union in late spring, nearly half of arable farmers interviewed (45 per cent) were less confident about the prospects facing their farm business over the next 12 months compared to last year. NFU combinable crops chair Andrew Watts commented, "A myriad of factors have hit arable farms this year. Our poll is a snapshot but it is extremely worrying that planted area remaining viable for 2013 harvest on those farms looks set to be 29 per cent smaller than last year."

"If the experts are to be believed and extreme weather is to become more frequent over the coming years, we must look at ways of supporting the industry," he added. The NFU chair continued that fresh restrictions of crop protection products, which have been shown to present unacceptable risks to the health of insect pollinators, have further lowered confidence.  

However, although the NFU found a demonstrable lack of optimism, the results of the Union's survey show that many farmers (39 percent) felt their situation had not changed greatly since last year; this was the largest single response given by respondents, out of five potential answers to the question dealing with confidence.

The next major UK crop update will be in July, when HGCA publishes its next data set.