Above average rainfall across eastern Australia in August and early September has enabled strong crop growth and provided a basis for a bumper winter crop, according to ABARE-BRS’s Australian Crop Report–September quarter 2010.

"Recent rains have added to one of the best starts to a winter cropping season in several years, and significantly boosted the yield potential of the winter crop leading into the crucial spring phase before harvest,” said Paul Morris, Deputy Executive Director ABARE-BRS on releasing the report today.

The ideal conditions in eastern Australia are forecast to result in Australian winter crop production reaching around 40.7 million tonnes in 2010–11, the highest since 2005–06, and 16 per cent higher than last year.

“New South Wales has the prospect of achieving some of the highest yields in 10 years and combined with a high area cropped is expected to drive the increase in national production,” Mr Morris said.

“New South Wales production is forecast to reach a record 14.5 million tonnes of winter crops, nearly double the drought–affected crop last season.”

The risks to the winter crop in the eastern states is the potential threat of crop damage by plague locusts and reduced yields caused by stripe rust. However, there is also upside potential for larger than expected production.

In stark contrast, conditions in Western Australia have been persistently dry. “Western Australia requires rainfall over the next several weeks to achieve average yields at best,” Mr Morris said.

“Winter crop production in Western Australia is forecast to be around 9.7 million tonnes, which is over 20 per cent less than last season.”

Of the major winter grains nationally, wheat production in 2010–11 is forecast to reach 25.1 million tonnes compared with 21.7 million tonnes produced last season.

Barley production is forecast to be 8.8 million tonnes in 2010–11, around 9 per cent higher than 2009–10 and canola production in 2010–11 is forecast to be 2.2 million tonnes, 17 per cent higher than last season.

Total summer crop area is forecast to increase by 60 per cent to 1.3 million hectares compared with the below average plantings of 797 000 hectares last season.

Plantings of cotton and sorghum are expected to rise by 96 per cent and 55 per cent respectively, while rice plantings are expected to more than treble.



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