David Sheppard, Gleadell’s managing director, comments on the wheat market.

Markets are still moving on weather concerns, or the lack of them, in the main grain-producing areas and on currency fluctuations.

Spring wheat conditions in the US are a concern. Ratings have dropped recently and quality wheat futures markets have moved higher in response.

EU, Russian and Black Sea crops look fair to good, with slight upgrades seen in crop estimates in Germany and Russia.  

Old crop imports continue to pour into the UK. In April we imported 210,000t bringing the season total to approximately 1.5 mln t.  The scale of these imports has not only brought continuing pressure on old crop prices, but also means that carryover stocks are now estimated higher at around 2 mln t.

UK crops, after a good drop of rain last weekend, look generally good and most pundits have raised their yield estimates to some extent.

The UK new-crop exportable surplus could now approach 1.5mln t and, especially for the harvest period, UK prices are a long way away from being export competitive.

Either international prices need to rise or UK prices fall, or indeed sterling needs to come under further pressure in order for the UK to be remotely export competitive.

In this scenario, especially for those who need harvest movement, adding some new-crop sales may be worth consideration.