David Sheppard, managing director at Gleadell grains supplies the latest information on the world grain market.

In Wheat, Coceral raises its forecast for EU-27 soft wheat production to 128.39mln/t, from 126.53mln/t.

Kazakhstan plans to raise monthly exports to 1mln/t from November.

Ukraine cancels export duties for wheat and corn, which should boost exports.

French farm ministry raises its soft wheat crop estimate to 34.1mln/t.

Harvesting confirms bumper corn yields in western EU.

USDA reports increased US and Global wheat/corn stocks – Global wheat stocks at 10-year high.

HGCA sees wheat availability unchanged year-on-year at 17.8mln/t – exportable surplus seen at 2.5mln/t.

Argentine wheat planting delayed by dry weather, in need of additional rain.

China purchases 1.5mln/t of corn and 700-800tmt of soybeans for state reserves – more needed? 

Russia mulls export duty on exports if they exceed 23-24mln/t – protective act to keep grain internally.

Summary

The Chinese purchase, Russia milling export duties and more confidence over the EU bailout of Greece was enough to consolidate prices that then soared ahead of the USDA report. However, a bearish wheat/corn report extinguished any glimmer of a possible short-term market rally. The numbers confirmed there is enough wheat in the world and, unless we witness a major crop problem, the likelihood of another bumper 2012/13 wheat planting campaign should keep prices on the defensive.