Jonathan Lane, ADM Agriculture’s head of grain trading, comments on the wheat market

Global markets remain starved of fresh bullish input as global concerns over the spread of the Omicron covid variant keeps long-holders in liquidation mode.

The traditional pre-Christmas slowdown has also quietened markets. 

All major exchanges have seen values fall over the past week. Chicago May 22 futures are down $8-10 and Matif has lost €6-7 over the past 7-10 days.

London feed wheat futures followed the trend, with May 22 losing around £4 over the past week and almost £20 from the highs reached on 23 November.

Seasonal logistics may provide some selling opportunities for UK growers.

Further out, the global market still remains fundamentally well supported, due to a shortage of mainly quality wheat in particular.

Both the EU and now Australia have struggled to meet import specs of key North African and Middle Eastern countries, and Russia simply hasn’t the volume to meet its usual export tonnages.

Russia’s agriculture ministry has left 2021 harvest figures largely unchanged at 76mln t, with total grain production pegged at 123mln t.

An announcement on the country’s planned wheat export restrictions between February and June is expected next week, with a figure of 9mln t already priced into the market.

For more detail on the wheat markets join UK wheat trader Freddie Humfrey on the ADM Agriculture YouTube channel

Will Ringrose, ADM Agriculture’s head of oilseeds, comments on the OSR market

CBOT soybean prices were strongly supported by this week’s rally in meal, which was supported by reports of low meal yields and tight supplies just as usage is starting to ramp up.

The National Oilseed Processors Association’s crush figures weren’t anything to write home about. November US crush figures came in at 179.46 mln bushels, below expectations, but the market brushed it off.

South American weather showed showers this week before turning dry with little rain in the two-week forecast. Weather will be closely watched as we head into 2022.

There have been rumours of 12 cargoes trading last week out of the US and Brazil to China.

Malaysian palm oil futures dropped sharply this week, with prices falling 4.5% yesterday before bouncing in this morning session. All oils traded lower at the start of this week, with crude oil values bouncing this morning along with soy oil.

Canadian canola traded below $1,000 this week. Nearby prices have fallen over $50 recently to hit the $1,000 key support level. These prices brought with it some renewed buying interest late in yesterday’s session.

Matif rapeseed traded lower once again, briefly touching levels below €700. Markets have bounced today with firmer oil values and seed supply still remains tight for the rest of the season.

UK prices have slipped slightly from recent highs.