After this year's dismal harvest, which impacted heavily on production in Britain's horticulture, tree fruit and arable sectors, there are fears that unsustainable demand for wheat is pushing up prices in Britain and driving increased exports.

On the back of the worst wheat harvest in a generation, Britain has become a net importer of the grain for the first time in over a decade in 2012/13. HGCA figures suggest Britain's wheat imports will double to over 2 million tonnes in 2012/13, due to low yields and quality concerns for domestic wheat, which has been ravaged by adverse weather and high disease pressures.

Elevated wheat and barley prices will have knock-on effects on food prices throughout the UK in coming months. Referrals to food banks have more than doubled in the past six months alone in the country and, according to organisations administering food-aid programmes, are expected to keep rising. Feed prices for livestock producers are also rising inexorably, causing concern in some sectors, especially where farm-gate prices are contracting.

In the UK, feed wheat reached £227/tonne last week, having almost doubled in price since the beginning of the year. Barley, demand for which is also high amongst brewers and maltsters, was £190/tonne; whilst barley prices have not risen as steeply as wheat, price increases remain significant nonetheless.

Poor wheat crops in other global breadbaskets, which an above average US harvest could not offset, and fears over the United States drought led to a surge in global wheat prices in July and August which has not yet abated. Globally, wheat production is expected to fall by 6 percent this year.  

The disastrous harvest has led biofuels producers, who had touted their operations as a means of sustainably sourcing domestic fuel, to increase their imports of maize and wheat from elsewhere. Mere months after the new Vivergo plant, a wheat-fed bioethanol facility near Hull, became operational and the Ensus plant at Wilton, near Middlesbrough reopened, these huge biofuel factories may find themselves competing with farmers, millers and brewers for scarce wheat supplies, driving prices ever higher.  

At full capacity, the two North-Eastern plants can process 2.5 million tonnes of wheat each year; more than the record imports projected by HGCA. In November, the poor quality wheat harvest led Ensus to add an estimated 20 to 30 percent imported EU maize to its feedstock, as the poor-quality UK wheat is deficient in starch.

Furthermore, continued wet weather, which has led to widespread flooding over the past fortnight, has hampered sowing in many parts of the UK, meaning 30 percent of the country's winter crop area remains unplanted. This in turn has given rise to concerns over next season's wheat production.

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