AHDB/HGCA's Early Bird Survey of cropping intentions suggests a significant decline in cereals and oilseeds plantings this autumn compared to last year.

The annual survey, conducted by Andersons and the Association of Independent Crop Consultants (AICC), aims to provide the industry with a brief, early snapshot of national cropping decisions to set the scene for Harvest 2013.

The findings are based on anecdotal evidence from agronomists responsible for nearly 240,000 hectares of arable land across England and Scotland about crops already in the ground – regardless of establishment conditions – coupled with planting intentions, should weather permit.

They show planting areas are down an anticipated 12% for winter wheat (to 1.76m ha), 9% for winter barley (to 385,000 ha) and 3% for oilseed rape (to 732,000 ha). The late harvest combined with difficulties drilling due to heavy rain and poor soil conditions have been cited as the main causes of the drop in plantings. As a result, the national spring barley crop area is projected to rise by 40% to 865,000ha.

Jack Watts, AHDB/HGCA Senior Analyst, stressed the findings needed to be put in context: "These figures need to be treated as a very early snapshot for the 2013 Harvest. There are a number of critical factors yet to determine final harvest areas, including seed availability for spring crops, pest damage, waterlogging, non-germination or emergence issues and weather conditions over the winter."

"As these play out over the coming months, the area harvested in 2013 may well differ from these initial estimates," he added

Graham Redman from Andersons said: "Some of this planted land will probably not make it to harvest as it will be written off and the extreme heavy rain of recent days in some regions means some of the intended land might not be drilled."

The results from the Farming Online autumn sowing survey suggests that winter wheat establishment is taking a hammering from the wet weather and that under two thirds of the acreage sown has established. Winter oilseed rape crops are also suffering from the sodden conditions and many crops comprise of small and vulnerable plants.

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