David Sheppard, Gleadell’s managing director, comments on the Wheat Market

US wheat is trading $3-4/t down on the week. The market continues to be pressured by disappointing exports, which remain 10% lower year on year.

However, severe cold weather concerns, the likelihood of record low winter US wheat plantings and cautious, but perhaps misplaced, optimism over the current US/China trade talks are helping to keep market bulls interested.

The US government is slowly returning to work. Key stocks and planting data delayed this month will be published on 8 Feb, and the recommencement of sales data will provide an insight into any expected increase in US demand.

European prices are unchanged on the week, although the French export outlook got a boost after securing some of the Egyptian tender.

Russia priced itself out of the market, confirming the agriculture ministry’s latest export projection, which trimmed wheat shipments by 1 mln t to 36mln t.

Romania shared the Egyptian tender but is close to running out, and there is   uncertainty over remaining export volumes in the Baltic states. This leaves France in prime position on future trades, although the jury is still out on how much export demand remains.

UK values are down £1 on the week, but Brexit continues to rule.

In summary, not a week of great change. The US market is all about talks with China, the EU market is all about reduced Black Sea supplies, and the UK is all about Brexit.

In the meantime, the wheat trade rumbles on with the same scale of uncertainty overhanging the markets, and the trade has also started talking about colder weather

Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading director, comments on the OSR market

The February Matif rapeseed contract expired yesterday and we have seen a technical squeeze in the front month as the nearby contract has traded at a significant premium over the May.

This front-month squeeze highlights the short-term lack of available seed on the Continent, due to strong biodiesel demand.

However, this spot squeeze could well be short-lived. There are numerous Australian canola vessels destined for the EU, which will alleviate any immediate supply issues.

In addition, as the biodiesel market transitions back from winter oil requirements into the warmer spring months, the reliance on rapeseed oil will ease.

This, combined with the EU approving the use of US soybeans in biofuels, could well take the shine off the latest uptick in the Matif rapeseed market.

In the UK, currency continues to dominate the headlines, and has largely undermined any rally that has been seen on the continent.

The uncertainty in FX markets that is being created by Brexit makes it very difficult to predict the flat price direction of UK farm-gate prices. However, the underlying fundamentals of the old crop market on the Continent suggest that any upside could be limited.

Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s fertiliser manager, comments on the markets

Granular urea

The Latin America Fertiliser Conference begins this weekend, with prices appearing to be in a period of calm.

Many will be hoping to see some price guidance for the spring period, with a large international demand still to surface in the weeks ahead.

Weather conditions across the UK have been variable, but it remains cold, which has kept a lot of attention on the first nitrogen dressing.

FOB values for straight urea have weakened as the pound has strengthened  against the dollar, due to the expected economic impact on the US after the government shutdown.

This makes granular urea a sensible and viable option for first dressing. A new direction of international urea prices may follow the conference, which could alter UK prices once again.

Ammonium nitrate

After a very busy month, CF has finally withdrawn January terms, although February and March terms remain unchanged and very competitive.

Frustrations with price fluctuations on imported material means many growers are considering switching to Blue Bag. Further votes in parliament on Brexit have had a further impact on currency this week and this will continue to play a part in pricing for the foreseeable future.

Both CF factories back in full production and deliveries are back on track. Buying now could be a good option.