image expired

Global 2015/16 wheat supplies are lowered 3.3 million tons primarily on decreased production to a projected 947 million tonnes . The largest production change is a 2.4-million-ton decrease for India on updated government statistics.

Australia production is lowered 1.5 million tons reflecting the sharp reduction in harvested area by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). The ABARES upward yield revision confirms USDA’s earlier analysis of weather data and satellite imagery. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton increase for EU production.

Global 2015/16 wheat production remains a record. World trade is lowered 0.4 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia on the smaller crop. Russia exports are lowered 0.5 million tons on a slow pace and reduced competitiveness to EU origins. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton increase for Argentina reflecting a very strong shipment pace.

World wheat consumption for 2015/16 is lowered 2.0 million tons to 709.4 million. India consumption is lowered 1.0 million tons reflecting the smaller crop. Consumption in Egypt and Iraq are each lowered 0.4 million tons, and the Philippines is lowered 0.3 million tons. With supplies declining faster than total use, ending stocks are lowered 1.3 million tons but remain amongst record highs at 238 million tonnes.

Oilseeds

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 526.9 million tons, down fractionally from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 320.2 million tons, down slightly from last month.

Other oilseed production changes include reduced rapeseed production for Australia, higher peanut production for India, lower palm kernel production for Malaysia, and lower cottonseed production for India and Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is projected at 149.3 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly reflecting increased soybean exports for Brazil. The soybean import forecast for China is raised reflecting strong imports to date. Partially offsetting are reduced imports for the EU, Pakistan, and Mexico, where more imports of soybean meal are expected.

Global oilseed crush is projected higher reflecting larger soybean crush in Argentina and China. The forecasts for peanut crush in India and rapeseed crush in the EU are also projected higher. Reduced forecasts for cottonseed crush in India, Pakistan, and the United States are partly offsetting. Argentina soybean meal exports are raised with a larger crush forecast. Soybean meal imports are increased for the EU, Pakistan, Mexico, and South Korea. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 89.5 million tons, down 1.7 million from last month, mostly due to lower soybean ending stock projections for Argentina and Brazil.

Global vegetable oil production is nearly unchanged this month as higher soybean oil and peanut oil production more than offset lower palm oil production in Malaysia. Global vegetable oil stocks are projected at 16.5 million tons, down marginally from last month.