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Global 2016/17 wheat supplies are raised 9.2 million tons to 983.0 million on increased production as well as a 1.5-million-ton increase in beginning stocks. Foreign production is raised 2.7 million tons led by 1.0-million-ton increases for both Russia and Ukraine on favorable weather. Production for Argentina, Australia, and Canada are each raised 0.5 million tons. These increases are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton decrease for the EU on heavy rain in France and a 0.7-million-ton decrease for Algeria on a worse-than-expected impact from drought.

Total world production is now projected at a record 738.5 million tons. Global use for 2016/17 is raised 13.3 million tons to 729.3 million, primarily on increased feed use, stemming from the large world supplies and heavy late-season rain in several production regions. Feed use in China and the EU are raised 5.5 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively.

Global food and industrial use is raised 1.7 million tons, led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for China. Global 2016/17 exports are raised 2.8 million tons on increased supplies and strong demand in several countries. Foreign export increases are led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Ukraine, and 0.5 million tons each for Argentina, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Turkey. The increases are partly offset by a 1.5-million-ton reduction for EU exports on a smaller crop and increased domestic feed use. With total use rising faster than supplies, world ending stocks are lowered 4.1 million tons to 253.7 million, but remain record large.

COARSE GRAINS:

Global coarse grain supplies for 2016/17 are projected slightly lower this month. Coarse grain beginning stocks are down slightly from last month mostly reflecting reductions in barley for the EU and corn for Brazil. Partly offsetting are higher corn stocks for China and Mexico.

Global coarse grain output is largely unchanged with lower corn and barley production mostly offset by higher oats, sorghum, and rye production. Brazil corn production for 2016/17 is reduced 2.0 million tons based on lowered yield expectations. Canada corn production for 2016/17 is lowered 1.3 million tons based on the latest area information from Statistics Canada and lower yield prospects following one of the driest Junes in over 30 years in Ontario.

Global barley production for 2016/17 is lowered, mostly on reductions for Turkey, Canada, Algeria, and Morocco, which more than offset increases for Australia, Ukraine and Uruguay.

Brazil corn production for 2015/16 is lowered 7.5 million tons reflecting the latest government statistics which confirm the adverse impact of this year’s early end to the rainy season in much of central Brazil. An unusual early June freeze also adversely affected second-crop corn in Parana following what had been a generally favorable growing season. Argentina corn production for 2015/16 is raised 1.0 million tons based on harvest data reported to date.

Global 2016/17 coarse grain consumption is lowered 3.3 million tons, mostly reflecting reduced corn feeding for the United States, Brazil, China, EU, South Korea, and Indonesia. Larger global supplies of feed-quality wheat are expected to undercut corn in price sensitive markets in the EU and Asia. EU corn imports are lowered for 2015/16 and 2016/17 with greater wheat and barley feeding. Brazil corn exports are lowered for 2015/16 and 2016/17, down 4.0 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively.

Global 2016/17 corn ending stocks are projected 3.3 million tons higher mostly on a 2.1-million-ton increase for China. Outside of China, corn stocks are 1.2 million tons higher with larger stocks for the United States and Indonesia more than offsetting reductions for Brazil, Japan, and Canada.

OILSEEDS:

Global oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 536.4 million tons, up 2.6 million from last month with U.S. soybean production accounting for most of the change. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 421.1 million tons, up 0.1 million with higher rapeseed and sunflowerseed production mostly offset with lower forecasts for cottonseed and copra. Rapeseed production is raised for Canada mainly on increased planted area reported by Statistics Canada.

Rapeseed production is reduced for the EU on lower harvested area and yields. Lower yields reflect excessive June rainfall, mainly in France. Other changes include increased soybean production for Canada and increased peanut production for the United States. Cottonseed production is reduced for India and Pakistan with partly offsetting increases for the United States and Australia.

Global oilseed ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 76.1 million tons, up 1.0 million with higher soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed stocks only partly offset with lower peanut stocks. Global vegetable oil stocks are raised mainly reflecting historical revisions for Indonesia.