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The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) issued by the USDA yesterday show a projected drop in global wheat, coarse grain and oilseed supplies for 2013/14.

Wheat

Global wheat supplies are projected to drop 5.6 million tons. The drop is as a result of lower production outside the US. World production is projected at 695.9 million tons, down 5.2 million from last month with reductions for Ukraine, Russia, and EU-27. Persistent dry weather in key growing areas of southeastern Ukraine and adjoining areas of southern Russia reduces production prospects 2.5 million tons and 2.0 million tons, respectively. EU-27 production is lowered 1.3 million tons with small reductions in a number of member countries.

Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is reduced slightly with reductions in feed and residual use for EU-27, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting higher expected food use for India, Iran, and Egypt.

Global wheat trade is raised with imports increased 1.0 million tons for Iran. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction in imports for EU-27 with lower exportable supplies in Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia exports are lowered 1.5 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. Export increases of 1.5 million tons for EU-27 and 0.5 million tons for Canada, combine with the U.S. increase this month to raise global exports 0.8 million tons. World ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 181.3 million tons, down 5.1 million from last month, and just above the level projected for 2012/13.

Coarse grain

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 4.3 million tons lower mostly on the reduction expected in U.S. corn output. Global coarse grain beginning stocks are also lowered as a reduction in 2012/13 China corn production is only partly offset by an increase in 2012/13 Brazil corn production this month. China corn production is lowered 2.4 million tons based on the latest government revisions for the 2012/13 crop. Brazil corn production is raised 1.0 million tons for 2012/13 based on higher reported area for the safrina crop which will be harvested in the coming weeks.

Global 2013/14 coarse grain trade is raised slightly this month. Corn imports are raise for Indonesia and corn exports are raised for India. Global corn consumption is down 1.7 million tons mostly based on changes to domestic use in the United States. Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 2.8 million tons lower with reductions for China and the United States partly offset by an increase for Brazil carried through from the larger 2012/13 crop. At the projected 151.8 million tons, 2013/14 world corn stocks would be up 27.5 million tons from 2012/13 and the largest in 12 years.

Oilseeds

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 490.8 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month. EU-27 rapeseed production is reduced 0.3 million tons to 19.7 million on lower area and yield, mainly for France. Other changes include reduced soybean production for Ukraine, reduced sunflower seed production for the EU-27, and increased sunflower seed production for Russia. Brazil’s 2012/13 soybean production is reduced 1.5 million tons to 82 million reflecting the impact of dry conditions in the northeast.

Full report can be seen here