The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) from the US Department of Agriculture show record global stocks for wheat but a potential drop in oilseed stocks.

Global 2017/18 wheat supplies increased 0.5 million tons, primarily on a higher production forecast for Kazakhstan. World exports are raised fractionally with Russia increased 1.5 million tons, partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for the EU. Russia exports are now projected at 37.5 million tons, up 35 percent from the previous year’s record and surpassing EU exports by 12.5 million. Global imports are also raised, led by a 1.0-million- ton increase for Turkey, which is largely attributed to supplies from Russia. Total world consumption is reduced, primarily on a 2.0-million-ton reduction for India on reports of weakening demand from rising domestic prices. Despite the reduction, total India consumption is still up marginally from the previous year’s record. With global supplies rising and total demand falling, world ending stocks are raised 2.8 million tons to a record 268.9 million. 

Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 574.5 million tons, down 4.1 million from last month. Argentina soybean production is forecast at 47.0 million tons, down 7.0 million from last month mainly due to lower projected yields resulting from dry conditions through much of the growing region in January and February. Brazil soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 113.0 million, reflecting the most recent report from the Brazilian government. Global rapeseed production is projected at 73.9 million tons, up 0.9 million with larger crops for China and Australia partly offset with a smaller crop projected for India. Other changes include higher sunflowerseed production for China and Kazakhstan, lower sunflowerseed production for Russia, and higher cottonseed production for Sudan. 

Global oilseed trade for 2017/18 is reduced 1.2 million tons mainly on lower soybean exports. Lower soybean exports forecast for Argentina, the United States, and Uruguay are only partly offset with a higher projection for Brazil. Global soybean crush is raised with higher crush projected for Brazil and the United States partly offset by lower crush in Argentina. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 94.4 million tons, down 3.7 million from last month. Reduced soybean stocks in Argentina and Brazil are only partly offset by an increase for the United States.