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U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are projected down 10 percent from 2013/14 with opening stocks, production, and imports all expected lower. Supplies for the new marketing year are projected to be the lowest since 2007/08. The all wheat yield is forecast at its lowest level since 2007/08. Most of the decline year to year in winter wheat reflects lower area and yields for Soft Red Winter wheat. This year’s lower Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat yield forecast is offset by higher harvested area, leaving HRW production just above last year’s very low level. Continued drought and April freeze events have sharply reduced yield prospects for HRW wheat. White Winter wheat production is forecast lower on the year with reduced area and yields. Spring wheat production for 2014/15 is projected to decline 6 percent as higher area is more than offset by lower projected yields. Durum yields last year were well above trend and other spring yields were record high.

Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are projected down less than 1 percent from 2013/14 as reduced opening stocks and production in the United States offset higher foreign opening stocks. World wheat production is projected at 697.0 million tons, down 2 percent from the 2013/14 record. Foreign production is projected12.4 million tons lower in 2014/15 with increases for Argentina, the European Union, China, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, and India more than offset by reductions for Canada, Turkey, Morocco, Ukraine, Australia, Iran, and Syria.

Lower area and a return to trend yields also reduce production in Canada from last year’s record high. In the Middle East, persistent dryness and early April freezes have severely damaged winter wheat crops from Turkey to northeastern Iran. For Ukraine, lower reported area and a return to trend yields reduce expected output.

Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is projected 1 percent lower than in 2013/14 with a reduction in world wheat feeding only partly offset by higher expected food use.

Global import demand for 2014/15 is lower with reductions for China, Iran, Brazil, Mexico, and Algeria more than offsetting increases for the European Union and Turkey.

Exports are lower for the European Union, India, Canada, Ukraine, Turkey, and Australia, but higher for Argentina and Russia.

Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 187.4million tons, up 0.9 million from 2013/14. 

Coarse Grain

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected at a record 1,461.0 million tons, up 2 percent from 2013/14 as the year-to-year increase in world beginning stocks more than offsets a reduction in world output.

Projected global corn production for 2014/15, at a record 979.1 million tons, is virtually unchanged from 2013/14. Expected decreases for Ukraine, Brazil, India, and South Africa are mostly offset by increases for China, Argentina, Russia, and Mexico. Ukraine production is lowered 4.9 million tons from last year’s record level as the reduced value of the local currency keeps input prices high and reduces expected use of fertilizer and other inputs.

Corn Figures

Global corn trade for 2014/15 is projected lower with imports projected down year to year for China and Mexico.

Corn exports for 2014/15 are projected lower for Ukraine and the United States. Exports, however, are projected higher for Argentina and Paraguay.

World corn consumption is projected at a record 965.8 million tons, up 17.0 million from 2013/14 on higher use in China, Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, and Japan.

Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 181.7 million tons, up 13.3 million tons on the year and at a 15-year high.  

Oilseed figures

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 515.2 million tons, up 2.4 percent from 2013/14 with increased soybean and peanut production partly offset by lower rapeseed, sunflower seed, and cottonseed production. Mostly due to a larger U.S. crop, global soybean production is projected at 299.8 million tons, up 5.6 percent. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 91 million tons, up 3.5 million on small gains in area and yield. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54.0 million tons, unchanged from 2013/14 with lower area offset by higher yields. China soybean production is projected at 12 million tons, down 0.2 million as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops.

Global production of high oil-content seeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed) is projected down 4.0 percent from 2013/14 on reduced rapeseed production in Canada and Ukraine, and reduced sunflower seed production in Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union. With crush projected to increase 2.4 percent, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 94.8 million tons, up 14.6 million. Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.2 percent in 2014/15. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.5 percent in China which accounts for 30 percent of global protein consumption gains.

Global soybean exports are projected at 112.3 million tons, up 1.5 percent from 2013/14. China soybean imports are projected at 72 million tons, up 3 million from the 2013/14 projection. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 4.1 percent in 2014/15 led by increases for China, India, and Indonesia.  

The full report can be read here