Following a warning over the possibility of African Swine Fever spreading into Europe, made last month by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, risk assessments have been carried out in the EU to assess the likelihood and potential causes of the disease’s spread.

ASF previously only affected areas of Africa and the Southern European island of Sardinia, aside from a brief foray into the European mainland, until 2007 when is spread to the Caucasus. The disease is currently affecting Russia and a number of neighbouring countries, but FAO experts fear it could continue to spread unless disease surveillance and control measures are introduced.

Researchers from the VISAVET centre, Madrid have warned that, although the risk of ASF being introduced into most of the EU is currently low, the situation is serious nonetheless, and countries on the Eastern edge of the bloc, including Poland and Lithuania are at greater risk.

After examining modelling data, the researchers said that an export ban placed on pig products and live animals from infected regions is proving effective, but warned that other vectors, including contaminated waste from ships and planes and vehicles returning to currently ASF-free areas may increase the risk of spreading ASF.

The researchers said their conclusions are drawn from a modelling they developed themselves, as little official information was available to them on the potential vectors. Though they said their model was approved by an expert.

Having estimated that returning trucks pose the greatest risk of increasing spread, the researchers echoed FAO in calling for the implementation of better disease surveillance and further precautions to prevent the spread of ASF. These could include disinfecting trucks travelling between ‘at risk’ locations.

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