The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates published today shows an increase in world stock of wheat to a projected new record high.

Wheat

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In the U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected lower this month.  Exports are raised 25 million bushels supported by the stronger-than-expected pace of sales and shipments, particularly for competitively priced feed-quality wheat.  Projected exports of Soft Red Winter and White wheat are each raised 15 million bushels on strong demand from Mexico and South Korea.  Exports are also projected higher for Hard Red Winter wheat, up 5 million bushels, based on sales and shipments to date.  Projected Hard Red Spring wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels as strong domestic premiums for spring wheat continue to limit demand.  Ending stocks for all wheat are projected 25 million bushels lower at 845 million.  Based on prices reported to date and the lower expected carryout, the 2011/12 projected season-average farm price is raised 20 cents on the bottom end of the range to $7.15 to $7.45 per bushel.

Global trade is raised slightly for 2011/12 with world imports increased 0.7 million tons.  Small increases in imports are made for Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Chile, and Ethiopia.  Export reductions for Ukraine, Canada, and India are more than offset by increases for Russia, the United States, Argentina, and Brazil.  Global wheat consumption is reduced 1.0 million tons mostly reflecting a 1.6-million-ton reduction in India food use.  Partly offsetting are small increases in food use for Australia, Chile, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan.  Global wheat feeding is nearly unchanged with a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Kazakhstan offset by increases for Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Mexico.  Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 3.1 million tons to a record 213.1 million.  As projected, 2011/12 global wheat stocks would be 2.4 million tons higher than the previous record in 1999/2000.

Oilseeds

U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2011/12 are unchanged this month, leaving ending stocks at 275 million bushels.  Soybean exports are projected at 1.275 billion bushels, down 226 million from last year.  Although soybean export commitments through January trail last year’s pace by more than 226 million bushels, lower soybean crop forecasts and reduced export projections for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay are expected to be offset by additional U.S. sales and exports during the second half of the marketing year.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 452.5 million tons, down 4.9 million tons from last month.  Brazil soybean production is forecast at 72 million tons, down 2 million due to lower projected yields.  The reduction reflects hot, dry conditions in southern Brazil in December and January.  Argentina soybean production is projected at 48 million tons, down 2.5 million.  Despite widespread rains in recent weeks, the extended hot, dry period during planting and early crop development limited plantings and reduced yield prospects.  Paraguay and Uruguay soybean production estimates are also reduced this month.  Other changes include higher rapeseed production for China and Russia, lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed production for Kazakhstan, and higher cottonseed production for Pakistan.


Global oilseed trade for 2011/12 is projected at 110.5 million tons, down 2.6 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean export projections for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay.  Soybean imports are reduced for China, EU-27, South Korea, Russia, and several Middle East countries.  China soybean imports are reduced 1 million tons to 55.5 million reflecting lower-than-expected October-December imports.  Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 71.2 million tons, down 3.6 million from last month.  Reduced soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina account for most of the change.

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