In Friday's WASDE release, USDA predicted that pig producers in the States would increase farrowings and keep hogs on longer, feeding animals to heavier weights, in response to the PEDv crisis gripping the nation. This, the agriculture department believes, could result in higher overall pork production, despite the fact that Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus has killed over 10 percent of the US pig herd since its discovery this time last year.  

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PEDv attacks the gut of young pigs; although older animals infected with the disease tend to survive, mortality rates in young animals are incredibly high. The disease has spread quickly through the United States, where it was first identified, and has since been detected in Mexico, Canada and Japan.

American authorities have come under fire for their handling of the epidemic; PEDv was only made a notifiable disease late last month. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced a series of biosecurity measures and tracking of pig and vehicle movements intended to improve knowledge on patterns of spread on 18th April, though farm groups claim that there was evidence of the disease's rapid spread months before USDA decided upon a course of action.

Yesterday, the US's largest grain industry group announced it has set aside $60,000 (£35.6k) to fund studies examining the roll feed has played in transmission of the disease. Previous studies concluded that feed is an unlikely vector for the spread of PEDv, apart from mother's milk, which could lead to 'vertical' transmission.

Even so, it is still widely believed that feed could be playing a role, and national authorities have taken action accordingly. On unveiling the funding, the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) said it hopes to establish whether there is a risk of PEDv contaminating feed "at all steps within the feed processing and delivery chain" and, if this is the case, to investigate methods of treating grain to destroy the virus.

Last week EU authorities introduced stricter import rules in response to the threat of PEDv. In a statement, the Commission said that export regulations on live animals are already strict and so would not be tightened further, but that pigs’ blood imported into the block would first have to be heat treated and placed in quarantine. Exporters from the US and Canada said there are no shipments of live pigs scheduled to depart for the EU.

Further action from the EU is expected following a meeting in early June.  

In spite of the damage already caused by PEDv – which has no known cure – USDA believes that pig production will move higher in 2015 and potentially compensate for contracting US beef production, though prices and imports will move lower as a result.  Pork supplies are also forecast lower, "reflect[ing] limited availability of hogs due to the impacts of PEDv on pigs per litter," though USDA projected, "a slow recovery in growth in pigs per litter is expected to constrain increases in availability of market hogs in 2015."

Nevertheless, USDA suggested that "The decline in hog numbers may be partly offset by heavier carcass weights."