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Production for Russia is lowered 8.0 million tons as continued extreme drought and record heat during July and early August have further reduced summer crop prospects. Kazakhstan production is lowered 2.5 million tons reflecting the same adverse weather conditions as in Russia. Ukraine production is lowered 3.0 million tons as heavy summer rains damaged maturing crops and hampered harvesting in western and southern growing areas. Harvest results also support indications that producers reduced input use in response to limits on available capital.

EU-27 production is lowered 4.3 million tons with yields reduced for northwestern Europe on untimely heat and dryness. Yields are lowered for southeastern Europe as heavy rains from the same weather pattern that affected Ukraine reduced output. Production is also lowered for Algeria, Brazil, Uruguay, Belarus, and Croatia. Partially offsetting are increases for India, the United States, Australia, and Uzbekistan.

World wheat imports and exports are reduced sharply as tighter supplies and higher prices reduce projected global consumption. Imports are projected 5.7 million tons lower as higher prices reduce demand in a number of countries. Exports are lowered 12.0 million tons for Russia partly reflecting the recent announcement banning exports through December. Also limiting Russia export prospects is higher expected wheat feeding with drought-reduced forage and coarse grain crops and policy goals aimed at increasing domestic meat production. Exports for Kazakhstan and Ukraine are lowered 2.0 million tons each with sharply lower production.

Higher exports from other countries partly offset FSU-12 declines. Exports are raised 1.2 million tons for China, 1.0 million tons each for Australia and EU-27, and 0.9 million tons for Turkey. The 5.4-million-ton increase projected for U.S. exports is expected to offset the largest share of the decline from FSU-12.

Global ending stocks are projected 12.3 million tons lower. At 174.8 million tons, world stocks are projected 49.9 million tons higher than in 2007/08 when prices soared to record levels. While world wheat stocks will remain well above crisis levels seen in 2007/08, the Agriculture Department cut its world wheat production forecast by 2.3 percent to 645.73 million tonnes in its August report, its first estimate since Russia, normally the world's No 3 wheat exporter, banned shipments to conserve domestic stocks.