AHDB/ HGCA market analyst Jack Watts has said that, in spite of predictions from the UN Food and Agriculture organisation earlier this week, the record global harvests promised by influential forecasters are not assured.

This week, FAO announced that record global grain production would ease pressure on prices of staple food commodities (which it said would create greater stability, particularly in developing countries). However, growers in the UK are concerned at the prospect of slips in wheat prices, as the harvest is predicted to be lower than the long term average for the second consecutive year.

Watts said markets are currently in their most "interesting phase" ahead of harvest. The UK has shifted position from a net exporter to an importer as the result of bad weather in recent months; this has impacted on prices.

Reacting to FAO's predictions at the Cereals event in Lincolnshire, the HGCA analyst said "this remains to be seen, as we have a number of weeks of weather to go through before it becomes a reality." He did, however, acknowledge that, as well as FAO, the US Department of Agriculture and International Grains Council have also predicted a record grain harvest this year.

He said, "As time passes and these estimates become closer to reality," the market will ease, unless a "weather event" sparks volatility, as happened with the US drought in summer 2012.

Watts warned that markets are "reticent to respond" and are awaiting the harvest to ensure yield and quality are as predicted, but, based on the current scenario, prices could ease, UK wheat will remain relatively expensive and the situation will favour imports.

HGCA has suggested the UK could become a net importer of oilseed rape in 2013/14, as the UK crop was subject to delays and establishment hiccoughs due to unpredictable weather earlier this year. However, agronomists have said OSR crops have responded well to the belated summery conditions.