Peter Griffith

In August Defra statistics revealed that on farm stocks of wheat were at their lowest for 12 years. Since then we’ve had one of the worst harvest with yields down by at least 15% and bushel weights at their lowest on record. The 2012 UK crop is put at an estimated 13.3 million tonnes which is below the projected total domestic use of around 13.6 million tonnes. Imports will have to make up the difference.

We are now seeing the lowest level of sowings of winter wheat accomplished by late October that many can remember. The Farming Online autumn sowing survey shows that currently only a third of the projected UK winter wheat crop has established.

The miserable weather continues to delay sowings. The forecast for overcast days and then a cold spell will not encourage soils to dry out adding to concerns that some autumn drilling will not be completed. The current figures from the Farming Online autumn sowing survey are shown in the graph below.

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Consequences of late sowing

Yields of late autumn sown wheat are typically 11 – 18% lower than September sown wheats established in good conditions. Spring sown wheats have a yield penalty of around 30%.

Assuming that all outstanding winter wheat sowings could now be completed within the next two weeks and these sowings established by early December we could be looking at a potential UK harvest no larger than this year’s. That is a 13% reduction in production this time due principally to delays in autumn sowings.

Submit your own autumn sowing details here.

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