The proportion of nabim Group 1 varieties hitting high quality bread wheat specification is the highest for 10 years, according to the second provisional results of the AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds Cereal Quality Survey. A massive 46 per cent of the samples so far have hit the spec for this harvest.

Wheat

James Webster, AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds analyst, said: “With more results now in, covering a wider area of the UK, we are beginning to get a clearer picture how the quality of this year’s harvest is shaping up.”

15,536 wheat samples in total had been analysed by 24 September 2016.
Of particular note in this year’s second provisional results is the high proportion of nabim Group 1 samples meeting a typical high quality bread wheat specification as shown in the Venn diagrams below. Forty-six per cent of the total samples analysed so far meet or exceed the required quality standards, which are a minimum specific weight of 76 kg/hl, Hagberg Falling Number (HFN) greater than or equal to 250 seconds and a minimum protein content of 13 per cent.

Last year, only 31 per cent of all the samples analysed met or exceeded the requirements for high-quality bread wheat, due to lower average protein levels.
Mr Webster added: “The high proportion meeting milling standards this year is likely to mean a greater proportion of the domestic crop being used in the UK flour milling industry. However, with a lower specific weight than in the previous two years, extraction rates are likely to be lower, which could also influence the amount of wheat required.”

Looking at all of the samples, the revised provisional average protein level for 2016 was 12.5 per cent. The protein level is only marginally lower than the level seen in the first release (12.6 per cent) but still remains up on the 2015 results and three-year average.

The average HFN for all samples was 309 seconds, a decrease on the level seen in the first provisional results (319 seconds). Even so it remains above the level of the final results from both 2014 and 2015. In the wider context, this year’s HFN is one of the highest levels on record, with only five harvests since 1977 exceeding it.

Specific weight remains below the three-year average and has also decreased compared to the level seen in the first provisional release. The overall average specific weight for 2016 is 76.7 kg/hl. The lower average level may reflect the increased proportion of nabim Group 4 samples analysed, compared to the first release. Group 4 varieties accounted for 28 per cent of the current sample, compared with 23 per cent in the first release.


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• Results in brackets are the second provisional estimates for that year.
• 2016 provisional estimates are based on 15563 wheat samples
• For historic data visit http://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets/survey-results.aspx

• The 2016 average Specific weight, at 76.7 kg/hl, is provisionally the lowest result since 2012. However, it is still significantly above 2012 levels. The range for 2016 is 70.8 – 82.0 kg/hl.
• The average Hagberg Falling Number for 2016, at 309s, is above both the provisional and final results for 2015 and ahead of the three year average. The range for 2016 is 196s – 413s.
• The provisional average protein content at 12.5 per cent, is provisionally the highest result since 2012. The range for 2016 is 9.97 – 14.92 per cent.
• Venn Diagrams

The Venn diagrams below show the proportion of Group 1 samples meeting typical milling wheat specification are higher than the final results from 2015. The proportion of Group 1 and 2 samples meeting the requirements for medium quality bread wheat are also up year on year.


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• Results in brackets are the second provisional estimates for that year.
• 2016 provisional estimates are based on 19908 barley samples
• For historic data visit http://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets/survey-results.aspx

For the 2016 second provisional release, the average specific weight for barley is 63.9 kg/hl. This is the lowest provisional result since 2012. The range for 2016 is 58.1 – 69.4 kg/hl.
The average nitrogen content for the 2016 provisional results, at 1.59 per cent is ahead of the provisional and final results from both 2014 and 2015 but behind the three year average. The range for 2016 is 1.23 – 1.95 per cent.
Provisional screening results indicate a smaller grain size compared to the three year average.  The proportion of grain which passed through a 2.25mm sieve was 3 per cent (range: 0.06 – 8.91 per cent), while the percentage that was retained by a 2.5mm sieve was 91.9 per cent (range: 75.3 – 100 per cent)
There is a noticeable divide in grain size between winter and spring varieties, with an average of 89.4 per cent of winter barley and 92.6 per cent of spring barley being retained by a 2.5mm sieve.

The final 2016 Cereal Quality Survey results will be published in late October/early November.

Further details on the AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds Cereal Quality Survey can be found on the AHDB website here.