The ability of the UK’s arable farmers to compete in a post-Brexit global market will be the focus of next month’s AHDB Grain Market Outlook Conference.

Guest speaker Samuel Ferreira Baliero from the Thünen Institute of Farm Economics will explore international competitiveness, looking at farm grains versus oilseeds, and also wheat versus maize, at the conference on 12 October 2016.

Jack Watts, AHDB Lead Analyst, said “We already know that UK grain has to compete in the global marketplace, but at the moment, the EU operates in a permeable market bubble. The EU tariff system protects EU producers from extreme market signals, like very low prices, while helping processors secure supplies of raw material on their doorstep.  It’s possible that the UK would get less preferential treatment, in the wake of Brexit – depending on the type of deal done – increasing the exposure of UK grain to pure global market forces.”

Mr Watts added that an independently-operating UK agritrade may be forced to compete on cost with cheap feed grains from outside the EU. He said “Success in the new world will in part be driven by the ability of UK producers to compete with farmers in Ukraine and Russia.  This will hinge on how cheaply we can produce wheat, not forgetting that in the feed complex we are also competing with maize.

“Without the safeguard of EU protectionist measures, it will be even more important for the UK to be cost- and export-competitive.”

Samuel Ferreira Baliero is a research assistant with the Agri-Benchmark Cash Crop team at the Thünen Institute of Farm Economics. He is also a Research Assistant on the Ecosystems Services and Management Programme at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

The conference will be held on Wednesday 12 October at the Grange Tower Bridge Hotel in London, and will feature four presentations on the theme of ‘preparing for a new agricultural world’.

The full line-up is:

2016/17 Grain market outlook: Jack Watts – Lead Analyst, AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds

2016/17 Oilseeds market outlook: Christophe Cogny – Biofuel & Oilseed Market Analyst, Stratégie/ Tallage

Brexit: Making sense of the long term challenge ahead: David Swales – AHDB Head of Strategic Insight

Exploring international competitiveness in grain and oilseed: Samuel Ferreira Balieiro – Agri Benchmark

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