Weather and climate experts from across the UK, meeting at the Met Office HQ in Exeter, suggested that the UK could be trapped in a cycle of wet weather, which could last for the rest of the decade.

25 delegates from various UK universities and the Met Office itself gathered on Wednesday (19 June) to discuss the recent run of unusual seasons in Europe. The past few years have seen wetter summers and more bursts of intense rainfall. 2012 was the wettest year on record in the UK, pipped only by the year 2000.

The climate experts examined weather patterns from three recent seasons and speculated about their potential causes. Their attention was focused on the cold winter of 2010/11, summer 2012 (the wettest for 100 years), and spring 2013 (which was the coldest in over 50 years).

Professor Stephen Belcher, Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre and chair of the meeting, elaborated, "Ultimately what we've seen in each of these seasons is shifts in the position of the jet stream which impact our weather in certain ways at different times of year.

"The key question is what is causing the jet stream to shift in this way? There is some research to say some parts of the natural system load the dice to influence certain states of the jet stream, but this loading may be further amplified by climate change."

The jet stream is a fast flowing air current above the Atlantic, which can influence the UK's weather. If the jet stream is forced southwards, the potential increases for wetter, colder conditions in the UK.

There are a number of possible factors which could be 'loading the dice', Prof Belcher said, including declining Arctic sea ice, solar variability, long-term ocean cycles, and other long-term cycles of natural variability. On Wednesday, the experts looked at recent research into possible drivers and made suggestions for future research that could improve understanding.

Wet weather: Atlantic current a likely culprit

Five out of the last six UK summers have seen above average rainfall (only 2010 saw average rainfall).  Meteorologists at the workshop heard new evidence from the University of Reading, which suggests long-term Atlantic currents may be playing an important role in driving wetter weather.

These currents are understood to operate on cycles of a decade or more, which the Reading researchers said suggests that the UK, and other parts of north-western Europe, may experience wetter summers for several years to come, as a result of their influence. However, the professor offered reassurance that, "While these influence the odds of a wet summer, it doesn't rule out the possibility of decent summers over the next few years."

With regards to the cold winters, there is a wide range of factors that could have an impact. Evidence suggests that changes in the Arctic climate may be one such driver.

Dr James Screen, from the University of Exeter, explained, "There has been a lot of talk about declining Arctic sea ice playing a role in our weather patterns, but really that's just one aspect of changes in the Arctic climate - which has seen rapid warming compared to other parts of the world.

"Those changes mean there is less of a difference in temperature between the Arctic and tropics, which could impact the position of the jet stream," leading to the observed changes in weather patterns.