The UK needs to reduce its reliance on Eastern Europe for cereal crops, just as it is for oil and gas, a farming expert has said.

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Mr Scott said the conflict starkly illustrated the fragility of the UK’s food security, with only 60% of the crops the country needs produced here. Russia is the world’s biggest exporter of wheat, producing around 18 per cent of international exports, while Ukraine normally produces about 12 per cent of the world’s wheat. 

“These are worrying times,” says Oliver. “People are rightly shocked by the images they are seeing on their televisions every day of the death and destruction in Ukraine, but it is easy to think that it only impacts on us in a relatively minor way, and this simply isn’t the case. 

“Russia and Ukraine are some of the biggest wheat producers in the world. That’s fine when everything's on an even keel and imports and exports are flowing freely, but when that grinds to a halt, we soon realise how much we rely on imports to make up the 40% gap in our food security. That has a big bearing going forward. Are we going to find ourselves not exporting as much because we need to keep it in this country? 

“That is why we are seeing such high prices. Old crop wheat is currently selling at £301 per tonne. New crop wheat is £250 per tonne. In March last year when I did the budget for this year’s harvest, I had it at £165 a tonne. The markets are still volatile. The price you get depends on when you are speaking to the traders. Just yesterday that price was fluctuating by £20 a tonne and that uncertainty doesn’t help.” 

Mr Scott said the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had vastly driven up overheads for farmers across the UK.  When I was working on our business plan last year, I expected diesel would be around £0.65 a litre.  As the crisis started to unfold, I increased to £0.85 a litre, however, I have heard quotes today of £1.20 to £1.50 a litre.   

 As we come into spring I’ll be using around 1,000 litres a day. I was speaking to one contractor who does a lot of livestock work and will be using 2,200 litres a day.  

Farmers are also incurring additional costs in respect of fertiliser, which has increased from £275 per tonne to around £1,150 per tonne. Farmers can offset the price rise by buying less fertiliser than usual this season for cereal crops but this will potentially lead to lower production at a time when supplies from Ukraine are under threat.  Ultimately, the consumer will pick up all of these additional costs. 

“In the UK we have been driven by subsidies for years. As the Basic Payment Scheme peters out, that gap is being plugged by agri-environmental schemes. I believe it is absolutely right that we should be farming in a more environmentally friendly way, but with our food security at 60% that is going to cause an issue if the crisis in Ukraine drags on for months or years. 

“There is a parallel between cereal crops and gas and oil. There is a lot of talk about how we need to end our reliance on Russia for gas and oil and that is the same for cereal crops. We need to be able to produce more food in the UK and keep it here.”