The International Grains Council recent report, Five-year global supply and demand projections, show world total grains output is expected to decline slightly in 2014/15, from the record level forecast for the current season, but then to rise by an average of 1.6% p.a. over the remainder of the five-year period, exceeding 2 billion tons by 2016/17.

While some area expansion is anticipated, particularly in the major exporters such as the CIS and Brazil, the increase is largely driven by improving productivity. Firm demand growth is also expected and, while the absolute level of stocks is likely to rise, the ratio of stocks to use is projected to fall slightly to 18% by the end of the 2018/19, from 20% forecast for 2013/14. The projections indicate a marked increase in trade volumes over the five years, as increased demand is met by production growth in the key exporters, most notably in South America and the Black Sea region.

Rice output and demand growth are expected to be closely matched, at an average of 0.8% and 1.0% respectively. Overall, world stocks should remain comfortable, but the stock-to-use ratio
is forecast to decline slightly, to 21% from 23% forecast for the end of 2013/14. Trade is projected to expand further, led by increased deliveries to Far East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Soyabean and rapeseed/canola production growth is expected to outpace grains and rice, against a background of strong demand from the crushing industry. Combined output growth is projected
at an average of 2.1% p.a. in the medium term. Oilseed stocks should recover, but the market is likely to remain relatively tight, with the stock-touse ratio is seen rising only slightly, to 12%, from 10% anticipated for the end of 2013/14.

Total grains

World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output is projected to rise to 2,064 million tons (m t) by 2018/19. Firm demand growth is also anticipated and, while the absolute level of stocks is likely to rise, the ratio of stocks to use is projected to fall slightly to 18% by the end of the projection period, from 20% forecast for 2013/14.

Assuming average weather conditions, output is expected to remain almost unchanged in 2014/15 as average yields decline from the highs anticipated for the current season, but area continues to expand to meet growing demand against a backdrop of favourable prices. Beyond 2014/15, output is expected to expand at an average of 1.6% p.a. While some area expansion is forecast, particularly in the major exporters such as the CIS and Brazil, the increase is largely driven by improving productivity. Average yields are expected to grow by 1.1% p.a. beyond 2014/15, compared to 0.6% for area.

World Wheat Stocks

Given the projected growth rates for production and consumption, global stocks are forecast to increase only modestly over the next five years. The world stockto-use ratio is set to tighten marginally, to around 25%, slightly lower than the average of 28% in the preceding five years.

image expired