Statistics released on Wednesday by the Scottish government show that Scotland’s 2015 cereal harvest fell short of expectations. the government’s final cereal harvest estimates reveal that the 2015 harvest was not the record-breaker analysts had anticipated.

Initial estimates from the October Crop Report Meeting suggested 2015 would see the best cereal harvest in 20 years in terms of yields. However, final estimates of the 2015 Scottish cereal and oilseed rape harvest – derived from the annual Cereal Production Survey and released by Scotland’s Chief Statistician – show yields are five per cent lower than anticipated.

This means yields are largely unchanged compared to last year.

The 2015 harvest in Scotland was late to start and, once underway, was halted several times by poor weather conditions, with more fields whole-cropped than usual, which is likely to have impacted on yield estimates.

The area of cereals planted fell by four per cent – mostly in reaction to crop diversification rules in the new European Common Agricultural Policy. As a result, total cereal production fell by four per cent to 3.1 million tonnes, including almost two million tonnes of barley and one million tonnes of wheat.

The report also puts the average overall yield for Scottish cereals at an estimated 7.0 tonnes per hectare. Yields this year were high compared to those of the last 20 years but not as high as previously expected.

The Chief Statistician said that, while yield estimates have fallen, the size of the revision is not unusual. There is a typical variation between early and final harvest estimates of around five per cent.

Cereal yields range from 5.9 for spring barley to 9.3 for wheat. Oilseed rape yields are estimated at an average of 4.1 tonnes per hectare. The longer term trend of improving yields continues, with the average cereal yield for the last 10 years seven per cent higher than in the previous decade.

Scotland’s largest cereal crop, spring barley, saw a nine per cent fall in production over the year, to 1.5 million tonnes. Oat production also fell to 152,000 tonnes.

Compared to last year, wheat, winter barley and oilseed rape production has increased. Wheat production is estimated at one million tonnes, the highest wheat production on record. This year, grower Rod Smith broke the world wheat yield record, achieving 16.52t/ha on his farm on the Northumberland coast, just a few miles south of the Scottish border.

In addition to the wheat, 406,000 tonnes of winter barley were produced and 148,000 tonnes of oilseed rape.

The statistician’s full report is available here.